397
FXUS61 KOKX 300718
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
318 AM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH EARLY TODAY
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER APPROACHING LOW LATE TODAY. THIS LOW
WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT THEN EXIT NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD IN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE PASSES WELL TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY TODAY AS A MUCH STRONGER LOW
APPROACHES US TODAY. THIS WELL-DEVELOPED LOW WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF NYC LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW THIS EVENING, WITH RAINFALL COVERAGE INCREASING
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF NYC LATE
TONIGHT (WHICH 00Z CAMS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON), EXPECTING
THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF QPF (WITH SOME MOMENTS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL) IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY.
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP
SHOULD OCCUR OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIME FRAME TO NEGATE MOST
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED OCCURRENCE OF
THIS CAN STILL NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THIS AREA OF HIGHER QPF.
THIS WOULD MAINLY OCCUR FROM A 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
GIVEN AMPLE FORCING AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH PWATS
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO NEAR MAX MOVING AVERAGE, HAVE INCLUDED
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. OTHER PARAMETERS DO NOT
SEEM TO INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, SO STICKING WITH
JUST GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
PASSES EARLY SATURDAY WHICH AIDS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXITING
THE CWA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A LONGWAVE
TROUGH FURTHER DEVELOPING INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITING, A COLD FRONT WILL GET SENT THROUGH LATE
ON SATURDAY. PRIOR TO THIS, LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL BE PREVALENT
IN THE AREA. WITH AND JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, ENHANCE
LIFT MAY LEAD TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A RETURNING CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COMES ANOTHER
BRIEF ROUND OF POSSIBLE DOWNPOURS, THE COVERAGE OF WHICH WILL BE
LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
1.5-1.75" IN THE LOWER HUDSON, CLOSER TO 1" FOR NYC, DROPPING CLOSER
TO 0.75" FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT'S EXIT, DRIER AIR GETS FILTERED IN, CUTTING OFF
PRECIP, UNDER STEADY NW WINDS. THE WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY, AT
TIMES, UNDER AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LOW EXITING
NORTHEAST.
DRY, COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO LOWS SAT
NIGHT BACK INTO THE LOW-50S TO MID-40S. COOLING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH
HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOW-70S TO UPPER-60S DROPPING TO THE
MID/UPPER-60S ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SHORTWAVE LIFT WILL MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD BEING EAST OF THE
CITY AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR WEST WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD
EASTWARD WITH LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
DESPITE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING
AROUND THE LARGER TROUGH COULD INTRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
SHIFT TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING RIDGING TO
BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA INTO LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF H5 LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
WHICH IF IT FORMS WOULD GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ON
THURSDAY. CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT GIVEN THIS IS A WEEK OUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S. A WARMING TREND THEN CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY MORE SUMMER-LIKE. HIGHS BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS (NBM) WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZES MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. A
STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
VFR TO START FOR NYC TERMINALS ON NORTH AND WEST. IFR-LIFR WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY OVER NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS AFTER
09Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE AFTER 13Z WITH MVFR BY 15Z
AND VFR AFTER 17Z. THERE IS POTENTIAL CONDITIONS ONLY BRIEFLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT
TERMINALS WITH IFR OR LOWER RETURNING AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD BE
HEAVY FOR A PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR THE THUNDER POTENTIAL AT NYC METRO AND KSWF FOR NOW, BUT
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ALL TERMINALS. LOW PRESSURE
STARTS PASSING TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, WHICH SHOULD START BRINGING SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES, BUT RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH DAY BREAK.
LIGHT S-SSW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME 5-10 KT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SE THIS EVENING AND THEN E-NE
OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE CONDITIONS ONLY FALL TO MVFR AT KEWR AND
KTEB.
TIMING OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTMENTS LIKELY FOR LOWERING CONDITIONS, RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
THUNDER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: IFR WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
SATURDAY: SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SW-W WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
FORECAST TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION ON IF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY
SUNDAY OR SUBSIDE. LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO CONDITIONS BELOW
SCA LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
1.5-1.75" IN THE LOWER HUDSON, CLOSER TO 1" FOR NYC, DROPPING CLOSER
TO 0.75" FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR POOR
DRAINAGE SPOTS N & W OF NYC. WHILE THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT
CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING, AN ISOLATED INSTANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR A 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW, WHEN
RAIN RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY ENHANCED, LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT IN WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WPC
HAS ALSO DRAWN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH
MUCH OF ORANGE COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY, FOR THIS
RISK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS MAY JUST BARELY TOUCH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES
TONIGHT. NO STATEMENTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DURING
FRIDAY WITH SE SWELLS LOWERING TO 4 TO 5 FT. A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH THE
CONTINUATION OF SW SWELLS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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