194
FXUS61 KOKX 302156
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
556 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A FEW MORE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF NYC, EXTENDING FROM NJ
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. THE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE. THE LATEST CAMS ARE INDICATING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
A STRONGER, MORE SIGNIFICANT, AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO APPROACH THIS EVENING AND PASS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE
LIFTING INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
AHEAD OF THIS LOW, HOWEVER AFTER 00Z, POPS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN TONIGHT. OVERALL, NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE
IN THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH THE EXPECTED TRACK NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY EAST OF NYC.
THE HEAVIEST AXIS IF QPF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF NYC, MAINLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND EXTENDING UP INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. WITH AMPLE FORCING, SOME INSTABILITY AND PWATS AROUND THE
90TH PERCENTILE, THIS AREA WILL SEE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
FLOODING. AS A RESULT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH
FOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES, HOWEVER
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3+ INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. IN ADDITION, RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT RAIN.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TO SEE SEVERE
WEATHER, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED AREA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES COULD REACH
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
ISOLATED CELLS/CLUSTERS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. THIS WOULD LIKELY
HAPPEN SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THEN POTENTIALLY BLEED INTO OUR
AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD, POPS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, HOWEVER NOT COMPLETELY END WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD IN THE MORNING WHERE
SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PART OF THE AREA.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST, EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA ALONG WITH A DEPARTING AND WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW. TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH. IN TURN, SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE FEATURES
WILL NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY RESULTING IN
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY MAINLY FOR MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN A CUTOFF LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH THAT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA IN SOME PAST RUNS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES,
MORE CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE EVEN SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z
RUN DOES PUSH THIS FEATURE FARTHER EAST SO THE TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE, BUT MUCH FARTHER
EAST AND NOT IMPACTING US. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
IN AND A DEEP S/SW FLOW TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 80S
FOR MID WEEK.
OVERALL STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE NBM OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MID
WEEK. THINKING WAS IT WAS LEANING TOO MUCH TOWARDS THE ECMWF CUT OFF
LOW SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NORMAL
MONDAY AND THEN WARM FOR MID WEEK.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH REMAINS NEARBY TODAY, THEN A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VFR AT NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT TERMINALS,
VARYING FROM IFR TO VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LOWERING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT TERMINALS WITH LIFR-IFR BECOMING LIKELY
TOWARDS 23-00Z. ELSEWHERE, MVFR-IFR SHOULD DEVELOP AS RAIN
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
IFR IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A PROB30 FOR
THIS POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD START IMPROVING SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS,
WITH VFR RETURNING MID TO LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BRINGING
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER PROB30 FOR TSTMS.
S-SSE WINDS AT GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
WEAKENS BRIEFLY TONIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AS WINDS SHIFT MORE SE-
E AND THEN NW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BACKING MORE NW-W FOR MUCH OF
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FOR TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS, RAIN, AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY PM: SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. W WINDS G20-
25KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVER THE OCEAN, SOUTH SHORE BAYS, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS AND
THE EASTERN LI SOUND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE.
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A
BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO
OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY WITH VERY
MARGINAL 20-25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FOOD SEAS. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
COULD RETURN LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY 3+
INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS NJ AND THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE
HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS, AS WELL AS A FEW QUICK RESPONDING RIVERS, CREEKS,
AND STREAMS. WPC HAS AN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
THE WATCH AREA.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS MAY JUST BARELY TOUCH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT DUE
THE PASSAGE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO STATEMENTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A 5-7 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 7-8 S, HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT THE SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES. SWELL HEIGHT AND
PERIOD ARE A BIT LOWER FARTHER WEST, WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS IN
EFFECT. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWERING SWELL AND STILL NO REAL ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>071.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...BC/JT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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