044
FXUS61 KOKX 310229
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MID-WEEK,
WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF NYC, EXTENDING FROM NJ
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH, AND AHEAD OF THE RAIN MOVING IN WITH THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER THE EASTERN SHORES OF MARYLAND.
A STRONGER, MORE SIGNIFICANT, AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE IN THE
TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH THE EXPECTED CENTER TO MOVE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY EAST OF NYC.
THE HEAVIEST AXIS IF QPF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF NYC,
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND EXTENDING UP INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. WITH AMPLE FORCING, SOME INSTABILITY AND
PWATS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE, THIS AREA WILL SEE THE
GREATEST THREAT OF FLOODING. AS A RESULT, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES, HOWEVER AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 3+ INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. IN ADDITION, RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT RAIN.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT, THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TO SEE SEVERE
WEATHER, MAINLY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ COUNTIES.
THERE WILL BE A LOCALIZED AREA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES COULD REACH
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF ENOUGH SHEAR FOR
ISOLATED CELLS/CLUSTERS TO BECOME ORGANIZED. THIS WOULD LIKELY
HAPPEN SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND THEN POTENTIALLY BLEED INTO OUR
AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD, POPS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH, HOWEVER NOT COMPLETELY END WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD IN THE MORNING WHERE
SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION, HOWEVER BY AFTERNOON, A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PART OF THE AREA.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE/SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST, EXPECT DRIER AIR TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SPINNING OVER EASTERN CANADA ALONG WITH A DEPARTING AND WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW. TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING
THROUGH. IN TURN, SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE FEATURES
WILL NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY RESULTING IN
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY MAINLY FOR MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN A CUTOFF LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH THAT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA IN SOME PAST RUNS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES,
MORE CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE EVEN SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER THE LATEST 12Z
RUN DOES PUSH THIS FEATURE FARTHER EAST SO THE TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE, BUT MUCH FARTHER
EAST AND NOT IMPACTING US. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
IN AND A DEEP S/SW FLOW TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 80S
FOR MID WEEK.
OVERALL STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE NBM OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MID
WEEK. THINKING WAS IT WAS LEANING TOO MUCH TOWARDS THE ECMWF CUT OFF
LOW SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NORMAL
MONDAY AND THEN WARM FOR MID WEEK.
AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MARYLAND TRACKS ACROSS THE NYC METRO
AREA OVERNIGHT, THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTH, THROUGH NEW ENGLAND,
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. LOCAL VLIFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE RAIN
LIKELY BECOMES MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NYC METRO AND W AND N. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, AND CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30S.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE, AND CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30S. RAIN MAY END BEFORE
00Z SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN TERMINALS.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, AND IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE TERMINALS. SE TO E WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W AND NW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS 20-25KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS EXPECTED FOR TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS, RAIN,
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT, ENDING AROUND 04Z
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVER THE OCEAN, SOUTH SHORE BAYS, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS AND
THE EASTERN LI SOUND. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE.
A WEAK GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A
BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FORECAST TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO
OCEAN WATERS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY WITH VERY
MARGINAL 20-25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FOOD SEAS. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
COULD RETURN LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY 3+ INCHES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL RATES
ACROSS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT RAIN. THE
HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AS WELL AS A
FEW QUICK RESPONDING RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS. WPC HAS AN
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE WATCH AREA.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS MAY JUST BARELY TOUCH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT DUE
THE PASSAGE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO STATEMENTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A 5-7 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 7-8 S, HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT THE SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES. SWELL HEIGHT AND
PERIOD ARE A BIT LOWER FARTHER WEST, WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS IN
EFFECT. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWERING SWELL AND STILL NO REAL ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NYZ067>071.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/JT
NEAR TERM...BC/MET/JT
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...BC/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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