259
FXUS61 KOKX 310656
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
256 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A FEW MORE WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WELL-
ORGANIZED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER NYC OR JUST EAST OF NYC BY MID-MORNING.
AS THIS LOW APPROACHES, HEAVY RAINFALL (WHICH HAS ALREADY STARTED)
IS LIKELY IN NORTHERN NJ AND UP AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
WITH PEAK RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2"/HR POSSIBLE. AREAS WEST AND
NORTH OF NYC ARE UNDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS, WITH SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. TOTAL RAINFALL IN THIS AREA MAY
APPROACH 1-2 INCHES, WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF 3-4" POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT, BUT MOSTLY ELEVATED. HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY MORNING,
BUT NOT LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE WEATHER CRITERIA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EAST OF NYC WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH FAR LESS QPF, JUST UNDER AN INCH EAST OF NASSAU
COUNTY AND FAIRFIELD COUNTY, DOWN TO 0.5" OF TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR AREAS FAR EAST ON LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
AS WE GET INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THE LOW WILL BEGIN
TO EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS BRINGS IN DRIER AIR & CUTS OFF
MOST OF THE MORE INTENSE PRECIP. SPOTTY TO ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
STILL OCCUR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL, SO ONLY A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE EXPECTED. FLOOD IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL GIVEN
THE QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT AND GIVEN
COVERAGE WILL BE LESS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL GET
FILTERED IN TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE AIDED BY A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND UNDER WESTERLY FLOW, LOCALLY.
DRY WEATHER REMAINS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AIDED BY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSING WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL
SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER-LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT, HOLDING COOLER AIR IN THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW-50S AT THE
COAST, WITH MID/UPPER-40S IN THE INTERIOR. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL MAX
OUT IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. IN
TURN, SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL
NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY RESULTING IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY MAINLY FOR MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN A CUTOFF LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH THAT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA IN SOME PAST RUNS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES,
MORE CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE EVEN SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE
DOES PUSH THIS FEATURE FARTHER EAST SO THE TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE, BUT MUCH FARTHER
EAST AND NOT IMPACTING US. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
IN AND A DEEP S/SW FLOW TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 80S
FOR MID WEEK.
OVERALL STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO THE NBM OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER FOR MID
WEEK. THINKING WAS IT WAS LEANING TOO MUCH TOWARDS THE ECMWF CUT OFF
LOW SITUATION. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NORMAL
MONDAY AND THEN WARM FOR MID WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NJ THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NNE, TRACKING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NYC AROUND 12Z, THEN
LIFTING UP INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND/OR TROUGH WILL FOLLOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SOME POCKETS OF HEAVIER
WRAPAROUND RAIN THOUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z, MAINLY
ACROSS THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS. A ROUND OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS, FROM ABOUT 19Z
TO 23Z. THIS LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACTUALLY HELP LIFT CEILINGS A BIT
DUE TO INCREASING MIXING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE WIND FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING,
AND IS DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE TERMINALS. SE TO E WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE W AND NW EARLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 20-30KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY FOR TIMING OF CATEGORY CHANGES, WIND
SHIFTS, AND TIMING OF INCREASING GUSTS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. A FEW LINGERING W WINDS G20KT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN LATER THIS
MORNING FROM AN APPROACHING LOW. A BUILDING SOUTHERLY SWELL IS
FORECAST TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO OCEAN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS WHICH COULD AGAIN RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
25KT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY WITH VERY
MARGINAL 20-25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FOOD SEAS. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
COULD RETURN LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY,
IN EFFECT NOW INTO THE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY 3+ INCHES ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA. RAINFALL RATES ACROSS NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY MAY
BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AS
WELL AS A FEW QUICK RESPONDING RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS. WPC HAS
AN SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE WATCH AREA.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS MAY JUST BARELY TOUCH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS POSSIBLE
IN THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT DUE
THE PASSAGE OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NO STATEMENTS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED. NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A 5-7 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 7-8 S, HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT THE SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES. SWELL HEIGHT AND
PERIOD ARE A BIT LOWER FARTHER WEST, WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS IN
EFFECT. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY WITH
LOWERING SWELL AND STILL NO REAL ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>071.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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