633
FXUS61 KOKX 311816
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
216 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, FOLLOWED BY
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN AND REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH A FEW
MORE WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER
THAN FORECAST, WITH A PEAK GUST AT KEWR OF 45 KT AT 1 PM, THANKS
TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH. THESE STRONG WINDS
SHOULD HEAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT. CONVECTION ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL NJ, WHICH
IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. MOST MESOSCALE MODELS TAKE THESE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF NYC, THEN
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL GET
FILTERED IN TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL BE AIDED BY A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND UNDER WESTERLY FLOW, LOCALLY.
DRY WEATHER REMAINS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT AIDED BY POCKETS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSING WITH A SHORTWAVE
THAT ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL
SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS UPPER-LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT, HOLDING COOLER AIR IN THE REGION.
LOW TEMPS BOTH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE LOW-50S AT THE
COAST, WITH MID/UPPER-40S IN THE INTERIOR. SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL MAX
OUT IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. IN
TURN, SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL SWING THROUGH AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THESE FEATURES WILL
NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE
THAT IS CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME THURSDAY OR FRIDAY RESULTING IN SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY MAINLY FOR MID NEXT WEEK AS THE
ECMWF HAS SHOWN A CUTOFF LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH THAT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA IN SOME PAST RUNS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES,
MORE CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE EVEN SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE
DOES PUSH THIS FEATURE FARTHER EAST SO THE TREND WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED. OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS FEATURE, BUT MUCH FARTHER
EAST AND NOT IMPACTING US. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING TO BUILD
IN AND A DEEP S/SW FLOW TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 80S
FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY, NORMAL MONDAY AND
THEN WARM FOR MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST AS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDS IN THEREAFTER.
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ANY TERMINALS WHERE MVFR IS STILL LINGERING
SHOULD IMPROVE BY 20Z, EXCEPT KSWF WHERE MVFR MAY CONTINUE UNTIL
THIS EVENING. HAVE CONVERTED PROB30 FOR TSRA TO JUST SHRA WITH
MVFR VSBY AND CIGS. THINKING THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IF ANY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.
WINDS MAINLY W/NW GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KT. OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. 20-25 KT GUSTS PICK BACK UP SUNDAY
MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN TSRA THIS AFTERNOON HAS DECREASED AND EXPECTING
JUST SHRA. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 35-40 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL REACH SCA CRITERIA ON NON-OCEAN WATERS WHILE OCEAN WATERS
WAVES WILL ALSO MEET SCA CRITERIA. OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ON OCEAN WATERS, BUT WILL BE TO
SHORT IN TIME AND NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A GALE WARNING
ISSUANCE. THE SCA WILL CONTINUE ON OCEAN WATERS ONLY (FOR WAVES)
INTO TONIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO SUNDAY WITH VERY
MARGINAL 20-25 KT GUSTS AND 5 FOOT SEAS. THEREAFTER, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
COULD RETURN LATE WEEK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM.
THIS AREA RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES IN ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOUR PERIOD.
THE AREA REMAINS UNDER AN FLS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH. THE CURRENT THINKING IS ANY
FLOODING WILL BE MINOR NUISANCE, BUT SOME LONGER TERM FLOODING
ON AREA RIVER AND STREAM IS POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
NO ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH A 5-7 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL AT 7-8 S, HIGH RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AT THE SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES. SWELL HEIGHT AND
PERIOD ARE A BIT LOWER FARTHER WEST, WHERE A MODERATE RISK IS
IN EFFECT. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY
WITH LOWERING SWELL AND STILL NO REAL ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-
081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ335-
338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/JT
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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