978
FXUS61 KOKX 312358
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
758 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE HEADS INTO QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, THEN DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND
INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND HEADS INTO QUEBEC BY SUNDAY MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO FOR
WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THEREAFTER DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO ALREADY
BE EAST OF THE AREA, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN THE
LOWER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO NYC AND
SURROUNDING METRO AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH. IN TURN, A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL
SWING THROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE FEATURES WILL NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING RUNNING BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MON, THEN AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN
THRU WED. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS RISE
THRU THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 ON WED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SWRN HOT SPOTS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO FALL ON THU AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED. IT WILL
STILL BE HOT, AND POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCKED IN, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS DUE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS. IT IS A BIT FAR
OUT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND TSTM ASPECT, BUT
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE HOT TEMPS.
A SLY COMPONENT LLVL FLOW KEEPS LI AND CSTL CT COOLER TUE-THU.
WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE SUPPRESSED FRI AND SAT, MORE CHANCES
FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN/EVE, ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING HIGH TEMPS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS IN RAIN
SHOWERS, LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR BTWN 02Z AND 04Z. VFR FOR
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
W/NW WINDS 15-20G25 KT THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING TO WNW 10-15KT
WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 02-04Z. W WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20G25KT SUNDAY AM BETWEEN 12-14Z, BACKING SW
FOR SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS AND GUSTS
SUBSIDING BTWN 22Z TO 00Z SUN EVE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT (RIGHT OF 310 MAG) TIL 02-04Z,
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. W WIND GUSTS 20-25KT (LEFT OF 310 MAG)
REDEVELOP BTWN 12-14Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON THE PROTECTED WATERS BASED
ON OBS. THE ADVY ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES AS WAVES REMAIN ABOVE 5FT
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WESTERN OCEAN ZONE LOOKS TO COME DOWN BELOW 5
FT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AND THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE BY AROUND SUNSET
SUNDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR ALL
WATERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...JMC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JT/NV
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP
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