052
FXUS61 KOKX 010231
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1031 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE HEADS INTO QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, THEN DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND
INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELENT TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE HEADS INTO QUEBEC, WITH STRATO-CU SCATTERING AND
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR COMING TO AN END THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WNW FLOW (30-35MPH) WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
2AM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO NYC
AND SURROUNDING METRO AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH. IN TURN, A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL
SWING THROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE FEATURES WILL NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING RUNNING BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MON, THEN AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN
THRU WED. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS RISE
THRU THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 ON WED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SWRN HOT SPOTS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO FALL ON THU AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED. IT WILL
STILL BE HOT, AND POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCKED IN, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS DUE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS. IT IS A BIT FAR
OUT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND TSTM ASPECT, BUT
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE HOT TEMPS.
A SLY COMPONENT LLVL FLOW KEEPS LI AND CSTL CT COOLER TUE-THU.
WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE SUPPRESSED FRI AND SAT, MORE CHANCES
FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN/EVE, ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING HIGH TEMPS.
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEPART THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST THIS EVENING. A WEAK
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CIGS FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR BTWN
AFTER 04Z. OTHERWISE, VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
W/NW WINDS 15-20G25 KT THIS EVENING, DIMINISHING TO WNW 10-15KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 04Z. W WINDS INCREASING TO
15-20G25KT SUNDAY AM BETWEEN 12-14Z, BACKING SW FOR SOUTH
COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDING
BTWN 22Z TO 00Z SUN EVE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
VFR. NW GUSTS TO 25-30 KT (RIGHT OF 310 MAG) TIL 02-04Z,
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. W WIND GUSTS 20-25KT (LEFT OF 310 MAG)
REDEVELOP BTWN 12-14Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ON THE PROTECTED
WATERS BASED ON OBS AND GOOD MIXING DOWN OF 25 KT WINDS THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. THE ADVY ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
THE WESTERN OCEAN ZONE LIKELY COMING DOWN BELOW 5 FT SUNDAY
MORNING, AND THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE BY AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY
EVENING.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JT/NV
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP
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