659
FXUS61 KOKX 010555
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE HEADS INTO QUEBEC THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, THEN DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND
INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY RELENT TONIGHT AS DEEP LOW
PRESSURE HEADS INTO QUEBEC, WITH STRATO-CU SCATTERING, GUSTY
WNW FLOW WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH 2AM.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, IN
THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND INTO NYC
AND SURROUNDING METRO AREA.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
TROUGHING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH. IN TURN, A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL
SWING THROUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE FEATURES WILL NOT RESULT IN ANYTHING OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD
COVER. IT WILL ALSO HELP IN KEEPING RUNNING BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON MON, THEN AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS IN
THRU WED. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS RISE
THRU THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 ON WED ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND SWRN HOT SPOTS.
HEIGHTS MAY BEGIN TO FALL ON THU AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED. IT WILL
STILL BE HOT, AND POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCKED IN, BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR
AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS DUE TO THE FALLING HEIGHTS. IT IS A BIT FAR
OUT TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND TSTM ASPECT, BUT
BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THE HOT TEMPS.
A SLY COMPONENT LLVL FLOW KEEPS LI AND CSTL CT COOLER TUE-THU.
WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO BE SUPPRESSED FRI AND SAT, MORE CHANCES
FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN/EVE, ALONG WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING HIGH TEMPS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA ON
SUNDAY, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
TERMINALS, OTHERWISE VFR.
WINDS WILL BE WNW 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
W WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20G25KT BETWEEN 12-14Z, BACKING SW FOR
SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS AND GUSTS
SUBSIDING 22Z TO 00Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
W WIND GUSTS 20-25KT (LEFT OF 310 MAG) REDEVELOP BETWEEN
12-14Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ON THE PROTECTED
WATERS BASED ON OBS AND GOOD MIXING DOWN OF 25 KT WINDS THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. THE ADVY ON THE OCEAN CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
THE WESTERN OCEAN ZONE LIKELY COMING DOWN BELOW 5 FT SUNDAY
MORNING, AND THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE BY AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY
EVENING.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/JP
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JMC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JP
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