291
FXUS61 KOKX 011144
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
744 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE HEADS INTO QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, THEN DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STACKED OCCLUDED LOW EXITS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOW. WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE AREA, A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND,
PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. CLOUDS THEN
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HANG AROUND INTO EARLY TONIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. THIS ALONG WITH THE LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH, MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A QUICK ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE ADDED 20%
POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THIS SLIM CHANCE.
WSW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HOLD UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM A REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY WEAKENS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THEREFORE, WINDS DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AREN'T LOOKING TOO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY, REMAINING
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER-60S. LOWS
TONIGHT MAY GET SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID-40S (INTERIOR) TO THE
LOW/MID-50S (COAST).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN CENTERS IT SELF
OVER THE AREA OR JUST OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. THIS HELPS WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE SOUTH, BUT OVERALL, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING ALOFT,
WARMING AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID-70S, WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER-70S
FOR MOST ON TUESDAY WITH SECTIONS OF NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY GETTING UP INTO THE LOW-80S. UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT,
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. SO ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE HIGHS
COULD BE A LITTLE LIMITED AT THE COAST FROM SEA BREEZES.
WARMER NIGHTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER-40S TO MID-50S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S (MID-50S FOR NYC METRO).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE (+2SD) BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A TASTE OF
SUMMERTIME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS GET INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE, POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR THE NYC METRO AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. NBM BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS GENERALLY SHOW
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM AT OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. THIS
POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. COASTAL LOCATIONS CAN ALWAYS BE TRICKY AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE ONSHORE FROM THE SSW. LOWS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
BE IN THE 60S, SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT HUMID. AT THIS TIME, HAVE
STAYED WITH NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW
FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. AIRMASS
DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
SHEARED. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TODAY,
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON.
VFR. SCT-BKN050-060.
WSW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20G25KT BETWEEN 12-14Z, BACKING SW
FOR SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS AND GUSTS
SUBSIDING 22Z TO 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
W WIND GUSTS 20-25KT (LEFT OF 310 MAG) REDEVELOP BETWEEN
12-14Z.
SPOTTY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
SCA FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS EXPIRES AT 8AM FOR SOME SPOTS STILL
OBSERVING AT OR NEAR 25 KT GUSTS. A SCA REMAINS UP ON OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR WINDS THEN
LINGERING 5 FT WAVES.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES SLOWLY
EAST.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
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