893
FXUS61 KOKX 011435
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1035 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE HEADS INTO QUEBEC THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, THEN DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STACKED OCCLUDED LOW EXITS INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE LOW. WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE AREA, A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND.
CLOUDS MAY INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HANG AROUND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES. THIS ALONG WITH THE
LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH, MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A QUICK ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP IN NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE
KEPT 20% POPS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THIS SLIM
CHANCE. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN US CURRENTLY. LATEST HRRR SMOKE PRODUCTS AND TIMING
TOOLS BRING THE EDGE OF THE SMOKE OVERHEAD SOMETIME AROUND
18-20Z. THIS SMOKE WILL ALL REMAIN ALOFT, WITH NOTHING EXPECTED
AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HAZY SKIES. THE SMOKE
WILL LIKELY PUSH EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WSW WINDS REMAIN BREEZY THIS MORNING AND LIKELY HOLD UP INTO
THE AFTERNOON FROM A REMAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH UNTIL THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY WEAKENS LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THEREFORE, WINDS DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AREN'T LOOKING TOO DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY, REMAINING
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER-60S. LOWS
TONIGHT MAY GET SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE MID-40S (INTERIOR) TO THE
LOW/MID-50S (COAST).
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY, THEN CENTERS IT SELF
OVER THE AREA OR JUST OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. THIS HELPS WINDS TURN
BACK TO THE SOUTH, BUT OVERALL, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP
WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY. WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING ALOFT,
WARMING AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID-70S, WARMING INTO THE MID/UPPER-70S
FOR MOST ON TUESDAY WITH SECTIONS OF NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY GETTING UP INTO THE LOW-80S. UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT,
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT. SO ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE HIGHS
COULD BE A LITTLE LIMITED AT THE COAST FROM SEA BREEZES.
WARMER NIGHTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT'S LOWS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER-40S TO MID-50S. SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S (MID-50S FOR NYC METRO).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE (+2SD) BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A TASTE OF
SUMMERTIME WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS GET INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SHORELINE, POSSIBLY AROUND 90 FOR THE NYC METRO AND
POINTS NORTH AND WEST. NBM BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS GENERALLY SHOW
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM AT OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE. THIS
POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WARMER READINGS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. COASTAL LOCATIONS CAN ALWAYS BE TRICKY AT THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE ONSHORE FROM THE SSW. LOWS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
BE IN THE 60S, SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT HUMID. AT THIS TIME, HAVE
STAYED WITH NBM DETERMINISTIC VALUES.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WILL ALLOW
FOR GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. AIRMASS
DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
SHEARED. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH APPROACHES THE TERMINALS. SCT-
BKN040-060 THROUGH THE DAY.
WSW WINDS 15-20KTG20-25KT, BECOMING SW FOR SOUTH COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS AND GUSTS SUBSIDING 22Z TO
00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
W WIND GUSTS 20-25KT BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON.
SPOTTY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAF AT
THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MARINE
SCA FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS AND WESTERN OCEAN NOW IN EFFECT
THROUGH 6PM FOR 25 KT GUSTS. A SCA REMAINS UP ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FOR WINDS AND
LINGERING 5 FT WAVES.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES SLOWLY
EAST.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080-
081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/JT
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BR/JT
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
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