087
FXUS61 KOKX 181524
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1124 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLE NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TODAY WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT, SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER AND
GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW
DISTURBANCES MAY MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A WARM FRONT STRUGGLES NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN. STRATUS/DENSE FOG BANK ACROSS THE OCEAN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ MAY WORK BACK ALONG IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
PLENTY OF STRATUS TODAY, WHICH WILL LIMIT MIXING AND HEATING,
KEEPING MAINLY IN THE 70S, EXCEPT LOWER 80S WEST OF HUDSON.
AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE,
WILL SEE MARGINAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BREAKS OF SUN. COMBINED WITH
WEAK UPPER ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SW THIS AFT/EVE AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BTWN 3 AND 10PM. THE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS VERY MARGINAL (LESS THAN 5% PROB FOR
LOHUD AND NE NJ). ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, AS THE STORM
WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING (EAST AT 20-25 MPH) THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL NUISANCE AND URBAN FLOODING, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND INTO NEW
YORK CITY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
LIMIT FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO VERY MARGINAL (LESS THAN 5% PROB FOR
NYC AND POINTS N&W). THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY
DECREASES WORKING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFT/EVE THROUGH NYC/SW CT
INTO LI/E CT WITH GREATER MARITIME INFLUENCE, BUT STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
AREA IN A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND,
AND WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S HEAT
INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. THE AREA WILL
BECOME INCREASING UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING, AND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREAT, SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO AND/OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK,
WITH THE REMAINDER IN THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
FAIRLY QUICKLY, AND TRAINING IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL END. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION FOR
FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
BIT OF A PATTERN CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS ALOFT START RISING FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES. THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR HEAT HEADLINES.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HIGH HEAT IS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONCE THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF MORE. AWAY FROM THE COAST
EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN MAX HEAT INDICES 100-105. WHILE SUNDAY
WILL STILL BE HOT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN SOME GUIDANCE
NOW HINTING AT ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE RIDGE AND
BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS TREND. FOR NOW STUCK
WITH NBM FOR POPS FOR THIS WHICH HAS ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE SLOW MOVE THROUGH.
SOME VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR HAS OCCURRED WITH OTHERWISE
MAINLY IFR/LIFR INITIAL CONDITIONS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR NYC TERMINALS, KHPN, AND KSWF, FURTHER IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR
TO VFR IS FORECAST MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, AROUND 18Z
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 01-02Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS
TIMEFRAME IS WHEN SHOWERS REDEVELOP AND MOVE IN ALONG WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS
BACK DOWN TO MVFR TO IFR FOR A SHORT TIME. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, IFR COULD LAST LONGER THAN FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FOR KBDR, KISP AND KGON, IT IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE THAT CONDITIONS
DO NOT IMPROVE ABOVE IFR THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG AND LOW STRATUS HERE
HAVE HIGHER CHANCES TONIGHT TO REDEVELOP. KGON ALREADY HAS IFR TO
LIFR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD BUT KISP AND KBDR THAT 20Z THIS AFTERNOON TO
03Z THURSDAY TIME WINDOW SHOWING MVFR COULD VERY WELL BE MAINLY IFR.
FOR THESE TERMINALS, SHOWERS ARE STILL FORECAST MAINLY IN THAT 20Z
TO 03Z TIME WINDOW, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE A LOWER CHANCE.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AT OR LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME TERMINALS WILL HAVE MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION
DURING TIMES WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE AT OR LESS THAN 5 KTS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINING TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS.
KJFK CHANCES ARE HIGHER THAT IFR COULD LAST SEVERAL HOURS
LONGER THAN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON OR MOVE IN EARLY THIS
EVENING AND LAST MUCH IF NOT ALL OF TONIGHT.
POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THURSDAY: ANY EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUD/FOG WITH IFR TO LIFR (SHOULD
IT OCCUR) IMPROVES TO VFR BY 13-14Z. SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH IFR
THEN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, SOME WITH LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST. OVERALL, A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES AND
TIMING OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ACROSS ALL BUT NY HARBOR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
LIKELY LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, BEFORE LIKELY RETURN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVE FOR OCEAN WATERS, AND LIKELY SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BAYS OF LI AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI SOUND.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY GUSTS MAY BE NEAR 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS,
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS, LATE IN THE DAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FEET.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT GUSTS WILL FALL BELOW 25 KT, HOWEVER OCEAN
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH RAIN, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY,
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, AND NEW YORK CITY INTO THIS EVENING,
AND LOCAL NUISANCE AND URBAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
PROBABILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING IS VERY MARGINAL.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE SPEED OF ANY CELLS AND
LACK OF OVERALL CELL TRAINING.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES IS MODERATE TODAY AND THURSDAY. INCREASING SW FLOW LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS LATER IN THE DAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...MET/NV
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT/JM
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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