087
FXUS61 KOKX 191314
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA
831 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TODAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
* HOT AND HUMID TODAY
* SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2 AND 10 PM
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WAS IN THE PROCESS OF BURNING OFF THIS MORNING.
THE STRONG LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF THIS TO
DISSIPATE BY LUNCHTIME.
SHORTWAVE APPROACH IN LATE AFTERNOON, ENCOUNTERING A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
MULTI-CELL AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL NY/PA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD WORK EAST TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
WITH ORGANIZATION INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT OR TWO POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (SPC-WFO COORDINATED SLIGHT
RISK FOR THE AREA) WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT (15%
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE W/I 25 MILES OF A POINT), PARTICULARLY
WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF
LARGE HAIL (5% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE W/I 25 MILES OF A POINT)
WITH ANY SUPERCELL/MULTI CLUSTER ACTIVITY, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT (2% PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE W/I 25 MILES OF A POINT) ALONG
BOWING SEGMENTS OR SUPERCELLS. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LI/CT,
EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY
AFTER 8PM AS STORMS ENCOUNTER A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
* PATTERN CHANGE TO HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK *
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE PERIOD. A
SHORTWAVE FEATURE EXITS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SE CANADA EARLY ON
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE
FOR THE MOST PART BEGINNING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE
NWP GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO RIDE AND BREAK THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS WILL BE A TRANSIENT FEATURE AS QUESTIONS REMAIN
AS TO HOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK AND WHETHER ITS EFFECTS WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FOR NOW HAVE COVERED THIS FEATURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS. IN ANY EVENT, THE TURN TO A HOT AND HUMID REGIME LOOKS
LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD BY LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOST AREAS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THUS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AS ANY SHOWER / T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON, WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER EAST. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD (SAY MID
TO LATE WEEK) IF THE RIDGE BREAK DOWNS ENOUGH, THE CHANCE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WOULD INCREASE AND COULD INTRODUCE SOME
CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAF UPDATE...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
IN MOST LOCATIONS BY LUNCH TIME WITH MOST LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR. THEN THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AFTER 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS...BUT A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR TO
EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORM.
SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE
BURNING OFF THROUGH LUNCHTIME. THEN WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WE EXPANDED THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z...BUT SHOULD SEE
VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE THROUGH LUNCH TIME. WE ALSO ISSUED NEAR SHORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LATER TODAY INTO PART OF THE EVENING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AS A RESULT OCEAN SEAS
WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET LATE TODAY INTO FRI AM. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, NW GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN BELOW 25 KT.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OCEAN SEAS SHOULD SETTLE IN AROUND 2 FT, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 3 FT
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ONCE AGAIN A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING (AROUND 5% PROBABILITY)
TODAY, WITH SCATTERED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE QUICKER STORM MOTION AS
COMPARED TO TODAY, WILL LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO ANY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF TRAINING.
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007-
009>011.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-350-353-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...FRANK
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...FRANK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FRANK
MARINE...FRANK
HYDROLOGY...99
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