126
FXUS61 KOKX 191742
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
142 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES...
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR NYC METRO,
NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, WESTERN LONG ISLAND, AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES IN LATE AFTERNOON, ENCOUNTERING A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNDERWAY ACROSS NE NJ AND PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND IS BEGINNING TO FORM INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE OVER THE NYC METRO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE CONVECTION ORGANIZE FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO ONE OR TWO
LINES SEGMENTS WITH SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. MLCAPE 1500-2000
J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT WILL HELP WITH
STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH. THE SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL, BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO RISK EXISTS FROM OUTFLOW AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS THAT COULD ENHANCE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BRIEFLY. AN
ISOLATED HAIL THREAT ALSO EXISTS.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SOUTHEASTERN CT, EXPECTATION
IS THAT STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT, BUT MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WITH A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN MORE URBAN AREAS.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS OR
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN COULD PERSIST A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST AND
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDICES PEAK 90-95 MOST
SPOTS WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE UPPER 90S.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY AND STILL VERY WARM BUT LESS HUMID WX EXPECTED FOR FRI,
WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS POSSIBLY SHIFTING SW ALONG THE COAST VIA
SOME SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM ON SAT. TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER ON SAT, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER 90S IN NE NJ AND
RISING WELL INTO THE 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK*
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD SO THE NBM WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
BEGINNING INTO THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE NWP GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE OF A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WHICH ATTEMPTS TO RIDE AND BREAK
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BUILDING RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A TRANSIENT FEATURE AS QUESTIONS
REMAIN AS TO HOW THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK AND WHETHER ITS EFFECTS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE COVERED THIS FEATURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS. IN ANY EVENT, THE TURN TO A HOT AND HUMID REGIME
LOOKS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD
BY LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOST AREAS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS THUS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER AS ANY SHOWER / T-STORM
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION WILL
EXPERIENCE THE FIRST HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON, WITH LESS CERTAINTY
FURTHER EAST. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK. TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD (SAY MID
TO LATE WEEK) IF THE RIDGE BREAK DOWNS ENOUGH, THE CHANCE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WOULD INCREASE AND COULD INTRODUCE SOME
CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
12Z TAF UPDATE...
MAIN ISSUE IS THE AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW CLOUDS WHICH WILL BURN OFF
IN MOST LOCATIONS BY LUNCH TIME WITH MOST LOCATIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR. THEN THE CONCERN SHIFTS TO THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT
AFTER 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT OR MISS...BUT A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF IFR TO
EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY STORM.
SW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MAIN CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND AREAS OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS THAT SHOULD BE
BURNING OFF THROUGH LUNCHTIME. THEN WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HARBOR, WESTERN
LI SOUND, AND OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 34 KT, SOME HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTING ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER EAST, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER, BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR SHORE GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN SCA
ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS. SW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT SHOULD
HOWEVER BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO 5-6 FT MAINLY E OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO FRI AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI MORNING FOR NY HARBOR AND THE NEARBY OCEAN WATERS.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OCEAN SEAS SHOULD SETTLE IN AROUND 2 FT, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 3 FT
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE QUICKER STORM MOTION WILL
LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THIS MORNING SHOULD INCREASE TO A
HIGH RISK LATER TODAY FOR THE NYC AND NASSAU OCEAN BEACHES AS
S-SW ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.
A HIGH RISK EXPECTED FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES ON FRI, ON A
LINGERING 5-6 FT BUOY WAVE HEIGHT ON A S-SE 7-SECOND WAVE
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007-
009>011.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353.
SYNOPSIS...BG/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/DS
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BG/DS/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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