856
FXUS61 KOKX 191926
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
326 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
KEY MESSAGES...
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR
NYC METRO, NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, WESTERN LONG ISLAND,
AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
* THE MAIN THREAT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ENDS BY 9 PM, BUT A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 1 AM.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE
NJ, NYC METRO, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND SW CT. THESE STORMS HAVE
LARGELY BEEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN THE FORM OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS
SHOULD HELP DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZE IT INTO A FEW
LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS. MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG AND STRONG
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-40 KT WILL HELP WITH STORM ORGANIZATION.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH. THE SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL, BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
RISK EXISTS FROM OUTFLOW AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT
COULD ENHANCE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BRIEFLY. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
ALSO EXISTS.
THE CONVECTION WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WEAKEN ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A STABILIZING LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FROM A STRONGER
MARINE INFLUENCE.
ANY THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS FAST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT, BUT MINOR
URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY WITH A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN MORE URBAN AREAS.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
MUGGY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NO FOG
IS EXPECTED AS THE SW FLOW BECOMES W OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING
LEAVING BEHIND A NW FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE A
BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PUSH THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES COULD DEVELOP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY WITH ANY ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY REMAINING OFF TO OUR NW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS HOT AS OBSERVED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. THESE READINGS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER. HEAT INDICES WILL BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES DUE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. IT
IS POSSIBLE DEW POINTS MIX OUT A BIT MORE THAN INDICATED GIVEN
THE PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW.
A SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS DEEP RIDGING
BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT TRAVERSE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH
COULD MOVE NEARBY OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE MAINLY LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INT HE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S, WITH AROUND 90 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE NJ. HEAT INDICES
MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES AS
DEW POINTS START TO RISE COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
*INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK*
BUILDING HEIGHTS LATE THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING SHIFTS OVERHEAD
AND AMPLIFIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING UP AN EARLY SEASON
HEAT SPELL ACROSS THE REGION.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF A SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO RIDE
OVER THE DEVELOPING RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
LESS AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE, SO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, A TRUE
SUMMERTIME HOT AND HUMID REGIME LOOKS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD BY LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOST AREAS, LIKELY PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NATIONAL BLENDED GUIDANCE YIELDS AFTERNOON AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SUNDAY, WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE
URBAN NJ CORRIDOR. HIGHS ON MON/TUE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED TRIPLE
DIGITS INTO NE NJ, WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. FACTORING IN THE HUMIDITY, DEW PTS PROGGED INTO THE 60S, AND
HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 100F AT TIMES. WITH THESE VALUES, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN ENOUGH, THE
CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WOULD INCREASE AND COULD
INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR SOME TERMINALS INITIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOST COVERAGE WITHIN THE 20-00Z TIMEFRAME. LOWERING
CHANCES THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENING. THEN, MAINLY DRY
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR WITHIN
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE BRIEF MVFR TO IFR IS POSSIBLE. POSSIBLE
MVFR TO IFR FOR SOME TIME LATE TONIGHT AT KGON.
WINDS ARE S-SW NEAR 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THEN WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT WITHOUT
MUCH CHANGE IN SPEED. STILL POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 20 KT GUSTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NEAR 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR THUNDERSTORM TIMING BEFORE 00Z.
STRONG GUSTS NEAR 35-50 KT POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BRIEF IFR TO MVFR POTENTIAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT. GUSTS SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
FOR SUNDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HARBOR, WESTERN LI
SOUND, AND OCEAN WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 34 KT, SOME HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTING ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER EAST, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER, BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
NEAR SHORE GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN SCA
REMAINING IN EFFECT. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OCEAN. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET
UNTIL 6 AM. THE SCA EAST OF THERE CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AS SEAS
SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FT. WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY ARE MARGINAL
AND COULD COME CLOSE TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE QUICKER STORM MOTION WILL
LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE, MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
THE MAIN THREAT.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS FOR THE NYC AND NASSAU OCEAN
BEACHES WITH STRONG S-SW ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING WAVES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON FRIDAY IS MODERATE WITH LINGERING 4-5 FT
SEAS ON A 7S WAVE PERIOD. THE RISK MAY END UP INCREASING TO HIGH
FOR THE SUFFOLK BEACHES IF SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007-
009>011.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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