438
FXUS61 KOKX 200523
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS PASS ACROSS THE AREA. SPRAWLING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER BY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
TODAY, MAINLY IMPACTING THE NYC/NJ METRO. PRIMARILY STRATIFIED
RAIN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO END
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. DEW POINTS SHOULD DECREASE A BIT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE
MUGGY OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. NO FOG
IS EXPECTED AS THE SW FLOW BECOMES W OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY MORNING
LEAVING BEHIND A NW FLOW ALOFT. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE A
BIT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME WEAK
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PUSH THROUGH LATE IN
THE DAY. THINK MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES COULD DEVELOP AN
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY WITH ANY ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY REMAINING OFF TO OUR NW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
AS HOT AS OBSERVED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. THESE READINGS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF SUMMER. HEAT INDICES WILL BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES DUE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. IT
IS POSSIBLE DEW POINTS MIX OUT A BIT MORE THAN INDICATED GIVEN
THE PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY FLOW.
A SIMILAR FLOW PATTERN REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHT RISES CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS DEEP RIDGING
BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES
THAT TRAVERSE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE, WHICH
COULD MOVE NEARBY OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. HAVE MAINLY LEFT
THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS INT HE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S, WITH AROUND 90 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE NJ. HEAT INDICES
MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES AS
DEW POINTS START TO RISE COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
*INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK*
BUILDING HEIGHTS LATE THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING SHIFTS OVERHEAD
AND AMPLIFIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, SETTING UP AN EARLY SEASON
HEAT SPELL ACROSS THE REGION.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF A SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTING TO RIDE
OVER THE DEVELOPING RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
LESS AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE, SO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
ANY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, A TRUE
SUMMERTIME HOT AND HUMID REGIME LOOKS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. THE WARM UP
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BUILD BY LATE SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MOST AREAS, LIKELY PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NATIONAL BLENDED GUIDANCE YIELDS AFTERNOON AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST SUNDAY, WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE IN THE
URBAN NJ CORRIDOR. HIGHS ON MON/TUE MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED TRIPLE
DIGITS INTO NE NJ, WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. FACTORING IN THE HUMIDITY, DEW PTS PROGGED INTO THE 60S, AND
HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 100F AT TIMES. WITH THESE VALUES, HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, SHOULD THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN ENOUGH, THE
CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WOULD INCREASE AND COULD
INTRODUCE SOME CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND T-
STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
MVFR WITH ANY RESIDUAL SHRA THROUGH 7Z FOR KTEB OR KEWR.
WINDS ARE S-SW NEAR 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT AND THEN
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT WITHOUT MUCH CHANGE IN
SPEED. STILL POTENTIAL FOR NEAR 20 KT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
PICK UP FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NEAR 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25
KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING SHRA THROUGH 7Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT FOR
SUNDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT
AS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
NEAR SHORE GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT INTO THIS EVENING WITH AN SCA
REMAINING IN EFFECT. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT
ON THE OCEAN. SCA WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM. TO THE EAST INTO FRIDAY AS SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW 5 FT.
WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY ARE MARGINAL AND COULD COME CLOSE TO 25
KT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND CONTINUE BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON FRIDAY IS MODERATE WITH LINGERING 4-5
FT SEAS ON A 7S WAVE PERIOD. THE RISK MAY END UP INCREASING TO
HIGH FOR THE SUFFOLK BEACHES IF SEAS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SATURDAY LOOKS MORE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME WITH A DIMISHING
SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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