080
FXUS61 KOKX 211536
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1136 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
CONTROL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FRONT WILL DRAW
CLOSER FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND MAY REMAIN NEARBY INTO
LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
DEPARTING TROUGH PULLING EAST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE
AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. WHILE NO POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST TODAY
AND THIS EVENING, AN ISOLATED SHOWER CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT. A DEVELOPING SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL ADVECT
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CONVECTIVE MCS THAT RIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOME CAMS INDICATE THAT THIS MCS THAT
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON MAY QUICKLY
TRAVERSE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SOMETIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE
THE INDICATION FRO A SELECT FEW MODELS, OPTED TO NOT GO HIGHER
THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE POTENTIAL MCS IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES, IF IT EVEN IS ABLE TO. BEST CHANCE TO
SEE ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST,
BUT ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS MUCH
LOWER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
* EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY INCLUDING NYC.
* HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY REMAINS, FOR PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND, AND COASTAL MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL
UNDERWAY WITH HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO RISE ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING TO THE SOUTH. THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY
MORNING CLOUD COVER OR SHOWERS FROM A POTENTIAL DECAYING MCS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN A TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THAT IS TOO HIGH FOR SUNDAY, BUT GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST,
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT MAY VERY WELL BE
A RECORD SETTING HEATWAVE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW AN ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUNDAY SO THAT DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S. AS THE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE RESULTING IN GENERALLY
WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD MIX DOWN ENOUGH TO ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THE HOTTEST SPOTS NEAR THE NYC METRO MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 100-105 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST, HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100
WILL BE EXPECTED.
THE HEAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EVEN HOTTER THAN
SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
90S THOUGH UPPER 90S IS EXPECTED FOR MOST IMMEDIATELY AWAY FROM
THE COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S ARE POSSIBLE FOR NE NJ
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MONDAY WILL PEAK
IN THE 105- 110 RANGE INLAND AND 95-105 ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS AT NIGHT WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S WITH MORE URBAN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT
DROPPING BELOW 80.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXCESSIVE HEAT, THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR NYC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON, BUT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY FOR TUESDAY.
* NOT QUITE AS HOT/HUMID ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR WED TO BE ALMOST AS HOT AS TUE.
* COLD FRONT SAGGING NEAR/INTO THE AREA MAY BRING SOME RELIEF LATER
IN THE WEEK.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HEAT RIDGE (H5 HEIGHTS 599 DM) OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION TO START WILL VERY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS CANADA. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SAG SOUTHWARD DURING MID TO
LATE WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
TUE SHOULD BE ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPS AT OR OVER
100 IN NE NJ AND PARTS OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY, MID/UPPER 90S
MOST ELSEWHERE, AND COOLER NEAR THE WATER IN SE CT AND ACROSS
THE FORKS/SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD
LOWER SOMEWHAT VIA VERTICAL MIXING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S, BUT
GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEAT, MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD SURPASS
105 IN MANY INLAND SPOTS, REACH 100-104 IN NYC/WESTERN LONG
ISLAND/COASTAL CT, AND THE MID/UPPER 90S MOST ELSEWHERE EXCEPT
MAYBE THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND. THE ABOVE NUMBERS COME FROM
STRAIGHT NBM GUIDANCE; WAS RELUCTANT TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
NBM AND ITS 90TH PERCENTILE WHICH HAS WORKED BETTER FOR HIGH
TEMPS RECENTLY BECAUSE ITS NUMBERS GET VERY CLOSE TO ALL TIME
HIGH TEMPS AT SOME INTERIOR CLIMATE SITES SUCH AS EWR AND
POU/BDL JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN MODEL
FCST H8 TEMPS, WHICH BETTER SUPPORT THE STRAIGHT NBM GUIDANCE.
WED STILL LOOKS HOT/HUMID WITH HIGH TEMPS AT LEAST 90-95 FOR NYC
METRO AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-100.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE, SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR
THIS DAY TO BE NEARLY AS HOT AS TUE SINCE NWP GUIDANCE OFTEN
UNDER- PREDICTS TEMPS ON THE LAST DAY OF HEAT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONTS.
HAVE CAUTIOUSLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS/HEAT INDEX VALUES
THU/FRI BELOW WARNING/ADVY CRITERIA WITH THE FRONT LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY, BRINGING DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
DAYS.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
LIGHT NW-WSW FLOW TO START SHOULD BECOME SW-S 5-10 KT INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT 10-15 KT IS
LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
S-SE HARBOR BREEZE SHOULD HOLD JUST E OF KEWR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
MAY MAKE IT IN THERE AND AT KTEB TOWARD 00Z SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
WSW-SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY
FOR KHPN/KSWF.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OTHER THAN SOME 5-FT SEAS LATE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS E OF MORICHES INLET, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD SETTLE IN AROUND
2 FT ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES WITH A
DIMINISHED SWELL AND LOWER OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS. WITH AN
INCREASE IN SWELL AND WAVE HEIGHTS OUT EAST LOOK FOR A MODERATE
RISK ON SUNDAY FOR NASSAU AND SUFFOLK BEACHES, WITH A LOWER
RISK FOR BROOKLYN AND QUEENS.
CLIMATE
INCREASING HEAT MAY RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SUNDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 22):
EWR 101 / 1988
BDR 93 / 1949
NYC 98 / 1988
LGA 99 / 1988
JFK 94 / 2012
ISP 94 / 2012
MONDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 23):
EWR 99 / 2024
BDR 91 / 2010
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 95 / 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
JFK 94 / 2010
ISP 91 / 1999
TUESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>010.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-176-178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NYZ078-080-177-
179.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
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