148
FXUS61 KOKX 220612
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
212 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A FEW DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM NOVA SCOTIA INTO WESTERN ATLANTIC
ON MONDAY. STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL BASED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS BASED SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ALONG IT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
INCREASED CLOUDS TONIGHT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ON TRACK WITH JUST SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS.
SW FLOW TONIGHT WILL ADVECT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THERE
IS STILL QUITE BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF A CONVECTIVE MCS THAT RIDES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE. SOME CAM'S INDICATE THAT THIS MCS MAY QUICKLY
TRAVERSE THROUGH PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO FORECAST ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE AS THE
POTENTIAL MCS CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES. BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION WOULD
BE FOR AREAS NORTH, BUT ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE
OF THIS IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL AT THIS TIME FRAME.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
* EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY INCLUDING NYC.
* HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY REMAINS, FOR PORTIONS OF LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY TODAY, WITH
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO RISE ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENING TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
MORNING CLOUD COVER OR SHOWERS FROM A DECAYING MCS MOSTLY ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
TODAY SHOULD BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT MAY BE A RECORD SETTING
HEAT WAVE FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW DEW POINTS TO RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE HOTTEST SPOTS NEAR THE NYC
METRO MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
GENERALLY 100-105 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST, HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100 WILL BE EXPECTED.
TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S WITH MORE URBAN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT
DROPPING BELOW 80.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXCESSIVE HEAT, THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR NYC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON, BUT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
* EXTREME HEAT CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION
* HEAT WAVE POTENTIALLY BREAKS LATER IN THE WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY) WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE
STRONG RIDGING WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT FEATURE EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH THIS RIDGING WEAKENING MID TO LATE WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR MORE DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.
REGARDING EXTREME HEAT, THE NEW FORECAST INCORPORATES A BLEND OF
MOS, NBM AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND DEWPOINT FORECAST MONDAY. USED NBM FOR TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER.
THE MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY USED 40 PERCENT NBM, 40
PERCENT PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 20 PERCENT MOS CONSENSUS. MOS DID
SHIFT SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO LAST RUN. DID NOT WANT
TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES JUST BASED ON SUITE OF MODEL RUNS
THAT BEING 12Z THIS MORNING. 12Z MOS MODEL DATA DID LOWER BY
SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUN AND IN SOME LOCATIONS
MORE. THAT IS WHY MOS CONSENSUS WAS WEIGHED LESS.
ONE SIGNIFICANT TREND MONDAY IS THAT DEWPOINTS RISE.
SYNOPTICALLY, LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE LOCAL REGION. IF LOW PRESSURE DOES
TREND ANY STRONGER OR CLOSER EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC,
THAT WOULD INVOKE A MORE SOUTHEAST FLOW AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTH
FLOW WHICH COULD TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 21-23 DEG C WITH
STRONG RIDGING AT 500 MB, WELL ABOVE 590 DM FOR MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKY
CONDITIONS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY RISE WITH DIURNAL
HEATING AS A RESULT AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURES FORECAST 105 TO 110
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NYC, NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CT FOR MONDAY. EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES TO
COVER THIS AS WELL AS AREAS THAT ARE CLOSE THE 105 DEGREE HEAT
INDEX MARK.
TUESDAY, 500 MB SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN HEIGHT, BUT STILL
PROMINENT RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 850
MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY STILL NEAR 22-23 DEG C. DAYTIME
TROUGHING APPEARS MORE EVIDENT TUESDAY, GIVING MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT TOO STRONG SO
WINDS NEAR 5-10 KT SW TO W. MORE DAYTIME MIXING EXPECTED BUT
DEWPOINTS STILL MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE REGION. MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
ACROSS THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING AREA, MOST LOCATIONS ARE AROUND
105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX WITH SOME LOCATIONS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
OUTSIDE THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING, WE HAVE AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH
FOR NASSAU INTO WESTERN SUFFOLK AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST CT ALONG
THE COAST. 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
REGION BUT MOST FORECAST VALUES ARE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND
100 RANGE.
WEDNESDAY MARKS A TRANSITION TIME PERIOD WHERE THE HEAT WANES,
WITH MORE HEIGHT DECREASES AT 500 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES
MORE IN THE 18-20 DEG C RANGE. MAX APPARENT TEMPERATURE RANGE
WEDNESDAY FORECAST WESTERN SUFFOLK WEST THROUGH NE NJ AND
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT, MORE IN THE 95-100
DEGREE F RANGE. THIS FORECAST IS A FEW DAYS AWAY AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY OF A FEW DEGREES WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS.
THIS COULD VERY WELL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE WITH HEAT INDICES AS A
RESULT. HEAT INDEX COULD POTENTIALLY GET TO 105 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA AS PREVIOUS DAYS. SO, HEAT HEADLINES MAY NEED TO GET
EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, LESS RIDGING AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD VERY WELL STALL OUT THEREAFTER WILL
PRESENT A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. MULTIPLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SETS INDICATES A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE FOR HIGHS MORE IN THE
80S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM REAPPEAR IN THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD INCREASE TO WSW AROUND 10 KT AFTER DAYBREAK, THEN TO
10-15G20-25KT BY AFTERNOON, HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS. WINDS
THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.
AN UNCERTAIN SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING SE FROM ONTARIO INTO NORTHERN NY MAY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN CT AFTER 12Z,
AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 TO KSWF/KHPN/KBDR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FROM
THEN UNTIL 16Z. RESTRENGTHENING MAY BE POSSIBLE THEREAFTER AS
ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHWARD, AND THE REMAINING TERMINALS MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO INCLUDE THUNDER IMPACTS AS WELL.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THUNDER IMPACTS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY FOR KHPN/KSWF.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SOME OCCASIONAL 5-FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE OCEAN BEACHES SHOULD SEE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY,
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE SWELL (3-4 FT) AND SW WINDS (10-15
KT). THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS LOW FOR MONDAY, WITH LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW (5-10 KT) AND LOWER SWELL (2-3 FT).
CLIMATE
INCREASING HEAT MAY RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TODAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 22):
EWR 101 / 1988
BDR 93 / 1949
NYC 98 / 1988
LGA 99 / 1988
JFK 94 / 2012
ISP 94 / 2012
MONDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 23):
EWR 99 / 2024
BDR 91 / 2010
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 95 / 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
JFK 94 / 2010
ISP 91 / 1999
TUESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>010.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
CTZ011-012.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-176-178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ078-080-177-179.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ078>081-177-179.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20/JM
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...20/JM
HYDROLOGY...20/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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