984
FXUS61 KOKX 221727
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
127 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AND SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEAKENS WITH MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
* EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY INCLUDING NYC.
* HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY AND AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY REMAINS, FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND
COASTAL MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES.
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WELL. THE MCS
WHICH MOVED ACROSS PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
SLIDE SOUTH. WHILE THE MORNING WAS CLOUDY, THERE IS SOME CLEARING
TAKING PLACE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. SO FAR THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED
THE AMOUNT OF HEATING, HOWEVER WITH SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE A BIT, MAINLY INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S.
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
CLEARING CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
* EXTREME HEAT CONTINUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN THE PEAK OF THE
HEATWAVE IS EXPECTED.
THE HEAT CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE 90S THOUGH THE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
IMMEDIATELY AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S
ARE POSSIBLE FOR NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES MONDAY WILL PEAK IN THE 105-110 RANGE INLAND AND 95-105
ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S WITH MORE URBAN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT
DROPPING BELOW 80.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO
MONDAY, THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER SO HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE COMPARABLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY
MAY APPROACH 100 OR RISE INTO THE LOW 100S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
GIVEN A WESTERLY FLOW, COASTAL AREAS LIKE LONG ISLAND MAY RISE INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXCESSIVE HEAT, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR
EACH AFTERNOON, BUT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN EXTREME
HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
NEW LONDON COUNTY IN CT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
* WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE THE LAST DAY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY FOR THIS
WEEK.
* A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR LATER THIS
WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARBY.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY MAKE WED THE LAST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE,
AND PUT THE AREA CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES, WITH
A COLD FRONT SAGGING TOWARD THE REGION ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS. WITH H8 TEMPS AS HIGH AS 19C IN THE NYC METRO AREA
LATE DAY WED, TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO GET CLOSE TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE
URBAN CORRIDOR OF NE NJ, WITH LOWER/MID 90S MOST ELSEWHERE, AND
MID/UPPER 80S FOR THE IMMEDIATE CT COASTLINE AND ALSO THE SOUTH
SHORE AND EAST END OF LONG ISLAND. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S THIS YIELDS HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-100 FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, NOT NEARLY AS OPPRESSIVE AS MON/TUE BUT STILL AT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
OTHERWISE, LESS RIDGING AND THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
WHICH COULD VERY WELL STALL OUT THEREAFTER WILL PRESENT A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS. MULTIPLE
MODEL GUIDANCE SETS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COOLDOWN, WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 80S ON THU, UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FRI, AND MID/UPPER 70S FOR
SAT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN CONTROL. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHEST GUST EXPECTED AROUND THE NYC TERMINALS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10KTS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY FOR KSWF/KHPN/KTEB/KEWR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR 25KT GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS
NEAR 5 FEET. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE SWELL (3 TO 4 FT) AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
(SW 10-15 KTS), A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR ALL
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH A RESUMPTION OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON (5-10
KTS). ONSHORE SWELL DECREASES FOR MONDAY (2 TO 3 FT). THERE IS A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR MONDAY FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES.
CLIMATE
INCREASING HEAT MAY RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TODAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 22):
EWR 101 / 1988
BDR 93 / 1949
NYC 98 / 1988
LGA 99 / 1988
JFK 94 / 2012
ISP 94 / 2012
MONDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 23):
EWR 99 / 2024
BDR 91 / 2010
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 95 / 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
JFK 94 / 2010
ISP 91 / 1999
TUESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ011-012.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-176-
178.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078-080-177-
179.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ078>081-
177-179.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
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