485
FXUS61 KOKX 230312
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1112 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
MAIN CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE THE PROBABILITIES AS SHOWERS HAVE
PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
ENERGY SHIFTING AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. ALSO, UPDATED FOR CURRENT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT WITH
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT REMAINING RATHER MILD. EXPECT LOWS TO
ONLY FALL INTO THE 70S. TEMPERATURES IN THE NYC/NJ METRO AREA
MAY ONLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
* EXTREME HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
* THE EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO HEAT ADVISORIES
* MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.
THE HEAT REALLY KICKS UP ON MONDAY GETS GOING ON MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE RIGHT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S FOR
NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
100 READINGS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK IN THE 105-110 RANGE
INLAND AND 95-105 ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF AS LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S WITH MORE URBAN LOCATIONS POSSIBLY NOT
DROPPING BELOW 80.
RIGHT NOW, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON
TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO MONDAY, THOUGH DEW POINTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE COMPARABLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MAY APPROACH 100 OR RISE INTO THE LOW 100S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN A WESTERLY FLOW, COASTAL AREAS LIKE LONG
ISLAND MAY RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AS WELL. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXCESSIVE HEAT, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR
EACH AFTERNOON, BUT ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL
MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTY IN CT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
* WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE THE LAST DAY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY FOR
THIS WEEK.
* A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LIKELY DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND FLATTEN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
HEIGHTS FALLING INTO WEDNESDAY. CONTINENTAL ZONAL FLOW THEN REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW. AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THEN WITH THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW THE
FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LAST DAY OF
THE CURRENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS AIR TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S, AND HEAT INDICES PEAK AT AROUND 95
TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FINAL
DAY OF HEAT HEADLINES. HOWEVER, WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE REACHED. UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. FOLLOWED THE DETERMINISTIC NBM GUIDANCE FOR ALL
PARAMETERS.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
VFR THRU TAF PERIOD.
A WEAKENING WEST WIND MAY GO LIGHT AND VRB FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED TOWARD
9Z MON. SEA BREEZE AT MOST TERMINALS FLIPS FLOW SOUTHERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS LARGELY AT OR UNDER 10 KT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY FOR KSWF/KHPN/KTEB/KEWR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL
OF THE FORECAST WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH AN INCREASE IN ONSHORE SWELL (3 TO 4 FT) AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS (SW 10-15 KTS), A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
FORECAST FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
THE OCEAN BEACHES FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
INCREASING HEAT MAY RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
MONDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 23):
EWR 99 / 2024
BDR 91 / 2010
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 95 / 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
JFK 94 / 2010
ISP 91 / 1999
TUESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ011-
012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-176-
178.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-
080-177-179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...20/DR
MARINE...BC/MET
HYDROLOGY...BC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page