463
FXUS61 KOKX 231959
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL REGION
THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND. FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT, HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER FROM THE DAYTIME MIXING AND WARM LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER-70S REMAIN WITH ONLY SE SUFFOLK COUNTY EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW 70 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ALOFT UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
WESTERLY FLOW MAY AID IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, OVERALL. GIVEN THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY, THE CURRENT THINKING IS DEWPOINTS WON'T MIX THAT
EFFICIENTLY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR NASSAU COUNTY, WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY, AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX COUNTY GIVEN HIGHER EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING NE SUFFOLK COUNTY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ADDED TO SE SUFFOLK COUNTY, GIVEN HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 95
TOMORROW AND ALREADY REACHED THIS THRESHOLD TODAY.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL EXCEED WHAT WAS REACHED TODAY, IN THE UPPER-90S
TO 102 IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PEAK HEAT WILL AGAIN PEAK AROUND 105-
110 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS
* EXTREME HEAT MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 ARE NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR NYC, NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT. OTHERWISE, HEAT INDICES NEAR 95 TO 100
ARE MORE LIKELY.
* MARGINAL FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
* HEAT WAVE BREAKS THURSDAY INTO START OF THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER.
LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PARTIALLY SUPPRESSED MID
TO LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS EXHIBIT A
SMALL NEGATIVE PRESSURE TENDENCY DURING THE DAY. MODEL 850MB
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 19 TO 20 DEGREES C DURING THE DAY, A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT HEAT DAY FOR THIS PARTICULAR HEAT EVENT. A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET MOS WITH THE NBM USED FOR THE FORECAST CONVEYS A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
WINDS BEING RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT. MAX HEAT INDICES
FORECAST ARE NEAR 95 TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, MAKING FOR
HEAT ADVISORY TYPE OF HEAT ALERT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
IF VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME. SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY REACH
CLOSER TO 105 FOR SOME AREAS IF TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN MID LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE REGION WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THIS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST, MORE PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THEREAFTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. MORE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE
REGION ALONG THEM. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND MORE IN THE
70S FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR SOME
AREAS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRES REMAINS S OF THE REGION THRU TUE.
VFR THRU TAF PERIOD.
LGT AND VRB FLOW THRU THIS EVE WITH SEA BREEZES AT MOST CSTL
TERMINALS. LOW CONFIDENCE EWR AND TEB HOWEVER. WINDS RETURN TO LGT
AND VRB TNGT INTO TUE MRNG, THEN BECOME WLY AFT 15Z. OCNL GUSTS UP
TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR EWR AND TEB SEA BREEZE. COULD EXPERIENCE HIGH
VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION INTO THE EVE ALTHOUGH SPEEDS MAINLY
BLW 10KT, ESPECIALLY EWR.
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHES OF IFR STRATUS/FOG JFK AND ISP TNGT.
LOW CHANCE FOR A SEA BREEZE JFK ON TUE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
REST OF TUESDAY: VFR WITH W FLOW.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SCT-ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE LATE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER. SHWRS AND TSTMS LIKELY.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER. DECREASING CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS.
SATURDAY: LIKELY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, THEN A CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVE
SHWRS AND TSTMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE MARINE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITHOUT A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT, CONDITIONS ON ALL FORECAST WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
HYDROLOGY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS WITH AIRMASS POTENTIALLY GETTING TO EXCESS OF
2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR LOW LYING, POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MOON ON JUNE 25. THERE
IS LITTLE WIND FORCING AT THIS TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SURGE. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FOR SW CT
AND THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU.
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL
THE OCEAN BEACHES FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
INCREASING HEAT MAY RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ006>008-010>012.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ011.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ011.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-176-
178.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-
080-177-179.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ079.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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