307
FXUS61 KOKX 240001
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AND SOUTH OF THE REGION
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL REGION
THEREAFTER INTO THE WEEKEND. FRONT PUSHES NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS. INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WITH MORE CIRRUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT. HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO
BETTER MATCH WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER
REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST DATABASE.
TONIGHT, HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
AS DEWPOINTS RECOVER FROM THE DAYTIME MIXING AND WARM LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80 DEGREE LOWS WITHIN PARTS OF NYC
AND NE NJ.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ALOFT UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
WESTERLY FLOW MAY AID IN SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, OVERALL. GIVEN THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY, THE CURRENT THINKING IS DEWPOINTS WON'T MIX THAT
EFFICIENTLY.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING FOR NASSAU COUNTY, WESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY, AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLESEX COUNTY GIVEN HIGHER EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING NE SUFFOLK COUNTY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
BE ADDED TO SE SUFFOLK COUNTY, GIVEN HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 95
TOMORROW AND ALREADY REACHED THIS THRESHOLD TODAY.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL EXCEED WHAT WAS REACHED TODAY, IN THE UPPER-90S
TO 102 IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE PEAK HEAT WILL AGAIN PEAK AROUND 105-
110 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY POINTS
* EXTREME HEAT MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 ARE NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR NYC, NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT. OTHERWISE, HEAT INDICES NEAR 95 TO 100
ARE MORE LIKELY.
* MARGINAL FLOOD AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGHER PWATS, HIGHER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY KEY
FACTORS AS WELL AS INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT AS UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES PUSH SOUTH.
* HEAT WAVE BREAKS THURSDAY INTO START OF THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER.
LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE PARTIALLY SUPPRESSED MID
TO LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AND MOVES INTO THE REGION. MODELS EXHIBIT A
SMALL NEGATIVE PRESSURE TENDENCY DURING THE DAY. MODEL 850MB
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 19 TO 20 DEGREES C DURING THE DAY, A FEW
DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE LAST
SIGNIFICANT HEAT DAY FOR THIS PARTICULAR HEAT EVENT. A BLEND OF MAV
AND MET MOS WITH THE NBM USED FOR THE FORECAST CONVEYS A RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
WINDS BEING RELATIVELY WEAK WITH WEAKNESS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT. MAX HEAT INDICES
FORECAST ARE NEAR 95 TO 100 ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, MAKING FOR
HEAT ADVISORY TYPE OF HEAT ALERT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS
IF VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME. SUBSEQUENT MAX HEAT INDEX
FORECASTS MAY REACH CLOSER TO 105 FOR SOME AREAS IF TEMPERATURES
TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN MID LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE REGION WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. THIS WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST, MORE PROBABLE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS, ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A MARITIME, RELATIVELY COOLER
AIRMASS.
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THEREAFTER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. MORE
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE
REGION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE 80S THURSDAY AND MORE IN THE
70S FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT REBOUND BACK INTO LOW TO MID 80S FOR SOME
AREAS SATURDAY. UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
FOR MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND ON SUNDAY AS WELL AS FOR NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR-IFR
VISIBILITIES EARLY TUESDAY AT KGON.
S-SW SEA BREEZES EXCEPT AT KSWF WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WNW-NW
FLOW DEVELOPS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. SW SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY
AT COASTAL CT TERMINALS BY MID MORNING AND KJFK AND LONG ISLAND
TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FLOW WILL BECOME W IN
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE FLOW REMAINS W IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SW SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT KJFK MAY BE OFF BY
1-3 HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION COULD ALSO VARY MORE TO THE S
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
GUSTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE OCCASIONAL AT KEWR/KTEB AND ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT KLGA.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
DAY AND NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. E WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF THE FORECAST WATERS.
FOR THE MARINE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITHOUT A
STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT, CONDITIONS ON ALL FORECAST WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
HYDROLOGY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. PWATS WITH AIRMASS POTENTIALLY GETTING TO EXCESS OF
2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR LOW LYING, POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MOON ON JUNE 25. THERE
IS LITTLE WIND FORCING AT THIS TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SURGE.
SHORELINE AREAS THAT COULD HAVE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE INCLUDE THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS,
WESTERN LI SOUND, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NY HARBOR. THROUGH
MIDWEEK, ASSESSING SURGE MODEL GUIDANCE, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WOULD BE ISOLATED, POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS TO
ADDRESS THIS. THIS IS BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS. ALSO,
LIMITING THIS TOO IS THE LACK OF FETCH WITH THE VARIATION OF
SURFACE WIND DIRECTION.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER PILING UP OF WATER. SURGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER SURGE POTENTIALLY HERE WITH MORE
SITES EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. STEVENS
INDICATES LOW POSSIBILITY OF REACHING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
FOR SOME SOUTH SHORE BAYS BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WITHIN
MINOR LEVEL OF COASTAL FLOODING. THE THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE
CYCLE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE PROBLEMATIC ONE WHERE MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH ADVISORY POTENTIAL TO
ADDRESS THIS COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.
REGARDING RIP CURRENTS, WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL OCEAN BEACHES TUESDAY WITH GREATER ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN 10-15 KTS AND SOME LINGERING ONSHORE LONG PERIOD SWELL
OF 1 FT. WAVES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 2 TO 3 FT. WINDS LOWER
WEDNESDAY AND WITH LESS ONSHORE LONG PERIOD SWELL INFLUENCE,
WENT WITH LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT SUFFOLK COUNTY LONG
ISLAND BEACHES WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER. WITH RELATIVELY
HIGHER ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED AT THE NYC AND NASSAU
COUNTY OCEAN BEACHES, WENT WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
THERE FOR WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
INCREASING HEAT MAY RESULT IN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 24):
EWR 97 / 1966
BDR 94 / 1966
NYC 96 / 1888
LGA 96 / 2013
JFK 97 / 2010
ISP 96 / 1966
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ006>008-010>012.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ011.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ011.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-176-
178.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-080-177-179.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ078-
080-177-179.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ079.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NYZ081.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...BR/JM
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM
CLIMATE...
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