306
FXUS61 KOKX 250546
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
146 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO A PART OF
WEDNESDAY. THEN, A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN MOVES
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO
BETTER MATCH OBSERVED TRENDS. CLOUD COVERAGE SLIGHTLY INCREASED.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
WE SAW RECORD-BREAKING HEAT TODAY WITH MANY CLIMATE SITES BREAKING
THEIR DAILY AND MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COMING IN, MANY SITES WILL SOON DROP BELOW THE 'EXTREME'
HEAT CRITERIA, BUT STRONG WARMTH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW-80S IN HEAVILY URBANIZED
AREAS AROUND THE NYC METRO. OUTLYING AREAS WILL ONLY DROP INTO
THE MID/UPPER-70S. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE CARRIED
OVER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 8PM.
ITS ALSO WORTH NOTING, SEVERAL RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
JUNE 24 ARE EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN, AS WELL, TONIGHT. THESE RECORDS
ARE FOR THE LOCAL STANDARD TIME MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT PERIOD,
JUNE 24.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. MUCH OF
THE DAY WILL REMAIN UNDER LIGHT W/NW FLOW. DEWPOINTS MAY BE A
LITTLE LOWER THAN WHAT WE ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NOT TOO
FAR OFF. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO
UPPER-90S DEPENDING ON LOCATIONS. THE HEAT INDEX WILL MAINLY BE
102 TO 98 ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME EASTERN COASTAL LOCATIONS
ONLY REACHING AROUND 95. REGARDLESS, THE HEAT RISK CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE NE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. GIVEN THE AMPLE DAYTIME
HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S IN THE
EVENING, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUSH IN IN THE
EVENING AND EARLY AT NIGHT WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT PROVIDES. COVERAGE WILL
BE LOW, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR COULD BRING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS GONE WITH A MARGINAL (1/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. 12Z CAMS HAVE SMALL POCKETS OF SBCAPE
1000-2000 J/KG. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MEET
SEVERE WEATHER CRITERIA WOULD MAINLY BE FOR WINDS AND LESS SO
FOR HAIL OR TORNADO RISK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERALL, HEAT WAVE BREAKS THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES FORECAST ON FRIDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPES WITH MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS
FROM TIME TO TIME.
THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ESTABLISH AN EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A RELATIVELY COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME POSSIBLE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST.
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. IT
APPROACHES THE AREA SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWS DOWN WITHIN THE
AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND EVENTUALLY PUSH
NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY
NEXT WEEK. VARIABLE WIND FLOW SATURDAY EVENTUALLY BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY AND STAYS SOUTHERLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEXT
TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM A COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS
TO A MORE TYPICAL SEASONAL AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND AND ACTUALLY BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE OVERALL
TEMPERATURE.
DEWPOINTS TREND FROM UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
MORE WITHIN MID 60S TO NEAR 70 THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMPERATURES 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST TREND
WARMER THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURE GET MORE INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING LOWER 90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT
INDICES ONCE AGAIN COULD BE GETTING INTO THE MID 90S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST MOSTLY FROM THE NBM WITH MORE MOS WEIGHED IN
FOR THURSDAY AND THIS WEEKEND, REGARDING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO A LIGHT W/NW FLOW
OVERNIGHT. NW TO NNW FLOW 10 KT OR LESS WEDNESDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS, EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE A SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY. WINDS
VEER NE LATE WED EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.
LATE DAY, AFTER 20Z, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE, TIMING, AND LOCATION
CONTINUE TO OMIT FROM TAF AT THIS TIME.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE AT KJFK UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY AND MAY BE
LATER THAN FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT KEWR,
KLGA, AND KTEB.
POSSIBLE LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS BECOMING NE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH THE ABSENCE OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT, CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
WITH THE RECENT HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE, HIGHER PWATS WITHIN THE
AREA NEAR 2 INCHES THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MARGINAL FLOOD THREAT EXISTS BUT
WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE MOSTLY MINOR NUISANCE, PARTICULARLY IN
THOSE LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
STEVEN SURGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER FOR TOTAL WATER LEVEL WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES WITHIN SOUTH SHORE BAYS. HOWEVER, RECENT
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT STEVENS HAS PREDICTED.
THEREFORE, STILL EXPECTING THE COASTAL FLOODING TO REMAIN MINOR WITH
THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MORE ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MOON ON JUNE 25. THERE IS
LITTLE WIND FORCING AT THIS TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SURGE.
SHORELINE AREAS THAT COULD HAVE SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE INCLUDE THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS, WESTERN LI
SOUND, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NY HARBOR. INUNDATION OF LESS THAN
HALF A FOOT MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER PILING UP OF WATER. SURGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER SURGE POTENTIALLY HERE WITH MORE SITES
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT.
THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY WITH GREATER ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT AND SOME
LINGERING ONSHORE LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 2 FT.
RIP CURRENT RISK FORECAST FOR OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY IS LOW
WITH LESS WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
HOWEVER, A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS AND WAVES
BUILDING.
CLIMATE
WEDNESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 25):
EWR 100 / 1943
BDR 94 / 1952
NYC 99 / 1943, 1952
LGA 99 / 1943, 1952
JFK 98 / 1952
ISP 92 / 2003
JUNE MONTHLY RECORD HIGHS
EWR 103 / 2021
BDR 97 / 2008
NYC 101 / 1934, 1966
LGA 101 / 1952, 2017
JFK 99 / 1949, 1952, 1959, 1964
ISP 96 / 1966, 1994
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/BR
NEAR TERM...JM/BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...JM/BR
HYDROLOGY...JM/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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