287
FXUS61 KOKX 250817
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
417 AM EDT WED JUN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WHILE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT, MEANDERING NEARBY INTO THE WEEKEND, BEFORE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTH INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE HEAT WAVE AS A CONFLUENT UPPER
FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWS HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH DURING THIS TIME, BUT NOT BEFORE
ANOTHER POTENTIAL RECORD BREAKING DAY. HIGHS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 3
TO 5 DEGREES COOLER, MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S`AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND
100. STAYED WITH THE NBM DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURES, WHICH
TRENDED UP A BIT. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST THROUGH 7 PM.
WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE, COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH, AND WEAK IMPULSES AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES,
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION, LATEST CAMS SHOW
POSSIBLE CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH BACKS IN FROM THE NE THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ, BUT
WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LESS THAN 6C.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST. A
CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WEAK
IMPULSES RIDE LONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS COOLER MARITIME AIR UNDERCUTS THE
WARMER WESTERLIES ALOFT. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
THE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT IN A NE/E FLOW. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TONIGHT, BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME AS WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES TRACK ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE DURING THIS TIME DUE TO AN EASTERLY
FLOW. COMPLEXES WORKING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY WILL FALL TO THE
LOWER 70S ON FRIDAY. THE LATTER IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, LOWS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
STUBBORN BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER NEARBY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS UNSETTLED.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
NORTH, THOUGH IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A WASHOUT, NOR A GREAT SEVERE
CONCERN. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE WAVE COULD ALLOW A
RELATIVELY QUIET SUNDAY, BEFORE DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SLIDES EAST, RETURNING THE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO FOLLOW
BY TUESDAY, MAINTAINING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES START MUCH MORE SEASONABLE FOR LATE JUNE, AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S, BEFORE WARMING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DEW PTS PROGGED INTO
THE 60S AND LOW 70S, HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH MID 90S, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR A LIGHT W/NW FLOW OVERNIGHT. NW TO NNW
FLOW 10 KT OR LESS LATER TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO
20 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS, EXCEPT AT KJFK WHERE A SEA BREEZE
IS LIKELY. WINDS VEER NE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.
LATE DAY, AFTER 20Z, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH WITH UNCERTAIN COVERAGE, TIMING, AND LOCATION
CONTINUE TO OMIT FROM TAF AT THIS TIME.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE AT KJFK UNCERTAIN TODAY AND MAY BE LATER THAN
FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON WNW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT KEWR, KLGA,
AND KTEB.
POSSIBLE LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS BECOMING NE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH THE ABSENCE OF A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT, CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, POSSIBLY AS
HIGH AS 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
STEVEN SURGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER FOR TOTAL WATER LEVEL WITH
POTENTIALLY SOME MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES WITHIN SOUTH SHORE BAYS. HOWEVER, RECENT
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE UNDER WHAT STEVENS HAS PREDICTED.
THEREFORE, STILL EXPECTING THE COASTAL FLOODING TO REMAIN MINOR WITH
THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MORE ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES THIS WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW MOON ON JUNE 25. THERE IS
LITTLE WIND FORCING AT THIS TIME TO PRODUCE MUCH SURGE.
SHORELINE AREAS THAT COULD HAVE SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE INCLUDE THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS, WESTERN LI
SOUND, AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NY HARBOR. INUNDATION OF LESS THAN
HALF A FOOT MAY BE POSSIBLE HERE.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY, ALLOWING FOR GREATER PILING UP OF WATER. SURGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A GREATER SURGE POTENTIALLY HERE WITH MORE SITES
EXCEEDING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT.
THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY WITH GREATER ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 KT AND SOME
LINGERING ONSHORE LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 2 FT.
RIP CURRENT RISK FORECAST FOR OCEAN BEACHES WEDNESDAY IS LOW
WITH LESS WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.
HOWEVER, A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES WITH MORE EASTERLY WINDS AND WAVES
BUILDING.
CLIMATE
WEDNESDAY'S RECORD HIGHS (JUNE 25):
EWR 100 / 1943
BDR 94 / 1952
NYC 99 / 1943, 1952
LGA 99 / 1943, 1952
JFK 98 / 1952
ISP 92 / 2003
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
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