399
FXUS61 KOKX 260523
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
123 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT,
THEN REMAIN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AND STALL NEARBY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A PASSING LOW IN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY
MORNING AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE LONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
THE WEST AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES AS COOLER MARITIME
AIR UNDERCUTS THE WARMER WESTERLIES ALOFT. BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NYC METRO AREA, LONG
ISLAND, AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MEANWHILE, THE LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT IN A NE-E FLOW. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER TONIGHT, BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
FOLLOWING CONSISTENT 00Z/12Z HREF SIGNALING POTENTIAL FOR A BAND
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE MORNING,
MAINLY ACROSS NE NJ, THE NYC METRO AREA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
THEREAFTER, CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
HIGH TEMPS ON THU WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S FROM NYC WEST, AND
IN THE 70S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND S CT. CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION
THU NIGHT WILL LEAD TO A DOWNRIGHT CHILLY NIGHT COMPARED TO
RECENT ONES DURING THE HEAT WAVE, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WET, UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
* MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
* LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
* WARM & WET MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
FRIDAY MORNING PUSHES BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WARM FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITHIN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW. WEAKLY AMPLIFIED
RIDGING ALOFT MAY RETURN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GIVEN THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
BRINGING POCKETS OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY THROUGH THE AREA,
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO START LATE FRIDAY AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT, PERIODIC
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS AIDED BY PWATS OF 1.75 TO
2.25" THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. IT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON IF THE
WARM FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA BEFORE STALLING NEARBY OR
STALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AMONG THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE VARIES, WITH
SOME BRINGING IT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND OTHERS NOT BRINGING IT
THROUGH UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. SHOULD IT STALL SOUTH,
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES & SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD IT ADVANCE NORTH,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES & DEWPOINTS,
BETTER AIDING IN NOT ONLY SHOWER COVERAGE, BUT ALSO A BETTER
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
NOTHING PAINTS THIS UNCERTAINTY BETTER THAN LOOKING AT THE NBM'S
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH VARY BY MORE
THAN 10-15 DEGREES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEANING HIGHS COULD
END UP IN THE UPPER-70S/LOWER-80S OR THE UPPER-80S/LOWER-90S ON
THESE DAYS, SOLELY DEPENDING ON THE STALLED FRONT'S LOCATION.
REGARDLESS, CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
IS MORE CONFIDENT GIVEN WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ANTICIPATED BY MOST
GUIDANCE.
AN OCCLUDED LOW IN CANADA SHOULD CAPTURE THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY, DRAGGING IT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LEAVE US WARM-
SECTORED WITH A PERIOD OF WET, UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO COOLING
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND POPS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST WERE DRIVEN
MOSTLY BY NBM DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING,
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MORNING
PUSH, AND HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AFTER 9Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORM THRU THE DAY, BUT INCREASING
CHANCES IN THE EVENING AFTER 00Z FRI.
NE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AND SPEEDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT, BEFORE VEERING MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO
15 KT. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOWARD 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF ANY SHRA OR TSRA THIS MORNING MAY BE AS MUCH AS A COUPLE
OF HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR, MVFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A STRENGTHENING E FLOW ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 4 FT DAYTIME THU. SCA COND THEN
EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FT AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
HYDROLOGY
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OF 1-1.5 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE
ACROSS NE NJ OVER TO THE NYC METRO AREA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND
THU MORNING, LEADING TO LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PERSISTENT E FLOW AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NY HARBOR, THE BACK BAYS OF
S QUEENS/NASSAU, PECONIC BAY, AND THE WESTCHESTER/SW CT
COASTLINE WITH THE THU NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT ON THURSDAY DUE TO A BUILDING E
SWELL AND 2-FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE.
CLIMATE
TODAY'S DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
EWR 100 / 2025 (TIES 1943)
BDR 95 / 2025 (WAS 94 / 1952)
NYC 99 / 1943, 1952
LGA 99 / 2025 (TIES 1943, 1952)
JFK 102 / 2025 (WAS 98 / 1952)
ISP 95 / 2025 (WAS 92 / 2003)
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR
NEAR TERM...BG/MET/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...BG/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page