084
FXUS61 KOKX 260745
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AND DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE
AND COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY
RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN
FOLLOWS TUESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ONCE AGAIN MID
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT WAS CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
AIRMASS WILL BE STABILIZING WITH A GRADUALLY COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. OF THE CAMS, THE
HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
CT AND EASTERN LI THIS MORNING, WHILE THE THUMBPRINT IS THEIR
WITH SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS, THEY ARE MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE
AND WEAKER IN INTENSITY. PW VALUES ARE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN
THIS AREA, SO THESE COULD BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS AND
STEERING FLOW IS INITIALLY WEAK. OVERALL THOUGH, NOT EXPECTING
MUCH RAINFALL, BUT THERE COULD BE NARROW SWATHS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL. 00Z SPC HREF HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. IT IS SHOWING ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AN
INCH OF RAINFALL IN 3 HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK IMPULSES AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES MAY SEND ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, BUT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TOO FAR
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. ONLY
EXPECTING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED TO NYC AND POINTS WEST
EARLY. THESE SHOULD BE WEAK AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY. ALSO, EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE
DAYBREAK, BUT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S. NEITHER OF WHICH ARE TOO FAR OFF FROM NORMAL. IN ADDITION,
DEW POINTS WILL DROP THROUGH THE 60S TODAY AND INTO THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IT REMAINS UNSETTLED DURING THIS TIME AND COOL AS THE AREA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. IT WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
AREA, THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH DEW
POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE WARM FRONT GETS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT A CONSENSUS APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST IT
STALLS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AS A FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON SATURDAY, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
DURING THIS TIME IS SKEWED TOWARD THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS SHOWING ABOUT 10 DEGREE RANGE FROM THE 25TH
TO 75TH PERCENTILES. THUS, WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST, SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SHOULD THE WARM FRONT GET THROUGH, IT WOULD BE A WARMER DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, BRIEFLY TURNING QUIETER FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN AS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
ANY LINGERING RAIN LOOKS TO TAPER SUNDAY MORNING, AND ALLOW FOR A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DAY, THAT COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF MONDAY AS
WELL. EVENTUALLY, THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LOOKS TO RETURN
BACK NORTH AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PRESSES EAST.
THIS WILL REINTRODUCE WET WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, PROGGED SOMETIME
TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS INTO EARLY MORNING, SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MORNING PUSH,
AND HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30S AFTER 9Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORM THRU THE DAY, BUT INCREASING CHANCES IN
THE EVENING AFTER 00Z FRI.
NE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED EARLY THIS MORNING AND SPEEDS INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KT, BEFORE VEERING MORE EASTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO
15 KT. A FEW OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOWARD 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF ANY SHRA OR TSRA THIS MORNING MAY BE AS MUCH AS A COUPLE
OF HOURS LATER THAN FORECAST.
OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR, MVFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AS SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE
AREA.
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY EASTERN LI AND SE CT. MINOR NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PERSISTENT E FLOW AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NY HARBOR, THE BACK BAYS OF
S QUEENS/NASSAU, PECONIC BAY, AND THE WESTCHESTER/SW CT
COASTLINE WITH THE THU NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT ON THURSDAY DUE TO A BUILDING E
SWELL AND 2-FT BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page