175
FXUS61 KOKX 261432
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1032 AM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE AND COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO
PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ONCE AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME, THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABILIZING WITH A
GRADUALLY COOLER AIRMASS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS MORNING AND SOME LIFT JUST NORTH OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PRODUCED SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF THE
NYC METRO. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE WORKING EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
SOME WEAK IMPULSES AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES MAY
SEND ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING,
BUT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TOO FAR EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO NYC AND POINTS WEST EARLY. THESE SHOULD BE WEAK AND
DISSIPATE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING
THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE
DAYBREAK, BUT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
60S. NEITHER OF WHICH ARE TOO FAR OFF FROM NORMAL. IN ADDITION,
DEW POINTS WILL DROP THROUGH THE 60S TODAY AND INTO THE MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IT REMAINS UNSETTLED DURING THIS TIME AND COOL AS THE AREA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. IT WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE
AREA, THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH DEW
POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE WARM FRONT GETS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT A CONSENSUS APPROACH WOULD SUGGEST IT
STALLS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AS A FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON SATURDAY, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
DURING THIS TIME IS SKEWED TOWARD THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS SHOWING ABOUT 10 DEGREE RANGE FROM THE 25TH
TO 75TH PERCENTILES. THUS, WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST, SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
SHOULD THE WARM FRONT GET THROUGH, IT WOULD BE A WARMER DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, BRIEFLY TURNING QUIETER FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN AS THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
ANY LINGERING RAIN LOOKS TO TAPER SUNDAY MORNING, AND ALLOW FOR A
PREDOMINANTLY DRY DAY, THAT COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF MONDAY AS
WELL. EVENTUALLY, THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH LOOKS TO RETURN
BACK NORTH AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES PRESSES EAST.
THIS WILL REINTRODUCE WET WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, PROGGED SOMETIME
TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH.
MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR SHOULD THEN
PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING WITH MVFR RETURNING OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY
WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.
NE FLOW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT THIS MORNING. GUSTS SHOULD
BECOME OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW VEERS MORE E THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
GUSTS COULD BE FREQUENT THROUGH 18Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY AS SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE
AREA.
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) CRITERIA LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PERSISTENT E FLOW AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NY HARBOR, THE BACK BAYS OF
S QUEENS/NASSAU, PECONIC BAY, AND THE WESTCHESTER/SW CT
COASTLINE WITH THE THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR UP TO A FOOT OF
INUNDATION ALONG THE SHORELINE OF THE BACK BAYS OF S
QUEENS/NASSAU/BROOKLYN, AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN LI SOUND
IN WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD IN SW CT. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR UP TO A HALF FOOT OF INUNDATION ALONG THE
VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE PECONIC AND SHINNECOCK BAYS, AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NY HARBOR.
ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING
FRIDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY DUE TO A BUILDING E SWELL AND EAST TO WEST SWEEP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHFRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR/DS
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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