535
FXUS61 KOKX 261725
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
125 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND THEN STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE AND COLD FRONT ATTEMPT TO
PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT LATE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS TUESDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING ONCE AGAIN MID NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
COLD FRONT HAS PASSED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME, THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABILIZING WITH A
GRADUALLY COOLER AIR MASS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
SOME WEAK IMPULSES AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES MAY
SEND ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING,
BUT IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TOO FAR EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. ONLY EXPECTING A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED TO NYC AND POINTS WEST EARLY. THESE SHOULD BE WEAK AND
DISSIPATE QUICKLY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING
THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR BEFORE
DAYBREAK, BUT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY THE LOWER 80S IN THE NYC METRO AREA, AND
LOWER/MID 70S TO THE NORTH/EAST. DEW POINTS WILL BE MOSTLY
55-60.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IT SHOULD REMAIN COOLER AND UNSETTLED DURING THIS TIME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH RETURNS NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS LOW THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS CLOSER, THE AIR MASS
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE, WITH DEW POINTS RISING
THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY--A
CONSENSUS APPROACH SUGGESTS IT SHOULD STALL NEARBY AS A FRONTAL
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL LOCATION ON SATURDAY, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
DURING THIS TIME IS SKEWED TOWARD THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS.
MUCH OF THE AREA IS SHOWING ABOUT 10 DEGREE RANGE FROM THE 25TH
TO 75TH PERCENTILES. THUS, WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
FORECAST, SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. SHOULD THE WARM FRONT GET THROUGH, IT WOULD BE A
WARMER DAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, BRIEFLY TURNING QUIETER
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH WEAK RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN AS THE BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED THROUGH STALLS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
ANY LINGERING RAIN LOOKS TO TAPER SUNDAY MORNING, AND ALLOW FOR
A PREDOMINANTLY DRY DAY, THAT COULD PERSIST THRU MUCH OF
MONDAY AS WELL. EVENTUALLY, THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
LOOKS TO RETURN BACK NORTH AS A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES PRESSES EAST. THIS WILL REINTRODUCE WET WEATHER LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, PROGGED SOMETIME TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BY MID NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
INTO THIS EVENING, STALLING OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 04Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE NYC METRO TERMINALS ON NW. HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE TAF EXCEPT AT KSWF. CEILINGS SHOULD THEN BEGIN
LOWERING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
IS THEN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KGON
WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NE-E FLOW 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KT. WINDS MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. E WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MVFR CEILING BKN025-BKN030 MAY PERSIST AN HOUR OR TWO LONGER
THIS AFTERNOON.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS AND E WIND GUSTS 20 KT
POSSIBLE. IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: IFR OR LOWER IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS WITH E WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AND
OCEAN SEAS 4-5 FT WELL AHEAD OF PREVIOUS FORECAST, AND STILL
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-7 FT. WINDS ON THE HARBOR AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ON THE
REMAINING NON OCEAN WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PERSISTENT E FLOW AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN NY HARBOR, THE BACK BAYS OF
S QUEENS/NASSAU, PECONIC BAY, AND THE WESTCHESTER/SW CT
COASTLINE WITH THE THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR UP TO A FOOT OF
INUNDATION ALONG THE SHORELINE OF THE BACK BAYS OF S
QUEENS/NASSAU/BROOKLYN, AS WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN LI SOUND
IN WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD IN SW CT. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR UP TO A HALF FOOT OF INUNDATION ALONG THE
VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE PECONIC AND SHINNECOCK BAYS, AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER NY HARBOR.
ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN DURING
FRIDAY EVENING'S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH WATER LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME DOWN SLIGHTLY.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY
DUE TO A BUILDING E SWELL AND E-W SWEEP ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHFRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-075-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ331-
332-335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR/DW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BG/DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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