060  
FXUS61 KOKX 262335  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
735 PM EDT THU JUN 26 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH  
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT,  
LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND STALL TO THE NORTH. AS A  
FRONTAL WAVE PASSES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL  
DRIFT BACK SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY  
NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN  
RESPONSE TO A PASSING CANADIAN LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS  
TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING MID WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/  
 
AS OF 330 PM, EXCEPT FOR STATEN ISLAND AND NEARBY PORTIONS OF  
NE NJ, OVERCAST SKIES COVER NEARLY ALL THE CWA. MEANWHILE, A  
FEW WEAKENING SHOWERS HAVE MADE IT INTO ORANGE COUNTY, AND DO  
NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MAKE IT MUCH FARTHER SOUTH/EAST  
BEFORE SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT,  
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
NYC METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER  
50S/LOWER 60S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
WINDS ON FRI SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE SE, WITH SKIES REMAINING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND ONLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWERS  
FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS  
COMPARED TO THOSE OF THU AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER  
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS INTERIOR S CT,  
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 70-75.  
 
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT, EXPECT A NON-  
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE, WITH EVENING LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. THEN  
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO THE  
MID/UPPER 60S, WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO FOLLOWING SUIT. ALSO EXPECT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT,  
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
* WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM A WARM FRONT SATURDAY.  
 
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SATURDAY  
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
* MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  
 
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
* DRYING OUT MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 
ON SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES  
THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND STALLS TO OUR NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT IN WARMER,  
WETTER AIR. CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM FRONT'S PASSAGE HAS BEEN LOW  
CONFIDENCE PRIOR TO THIS, BUT MOST 12Z GUIDANCE NOW AGREES ON  
ITS PASSAGE NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN  
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC NBM (WHICH IS  
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE). HIGHS ON  
SATURDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER-80S FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (NEAR NYC AND NE NJ) AND ARE IN  
THE LOW-80S/UPPER-70S FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA  
(NEAR SE CT).  
 
AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY, A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES TO  
OUR NORTH. THIS OCCURS IN TANDEM WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
THAT INCREASES UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT. GIVEN WARMER  
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREFORE,  
WPC HAS GONE WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR  
AREAS N & W OF NYC WHERE SOME OF THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED.  
MLCAPE COULD PEAK TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG IN THIS AREA. GIVEN  
WARM TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE, THIS COULD LEAD TO  
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. IN ADDITION TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY,  
EXPECTED SHEAR AND SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE  
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER N&W OF NYC SATURDAY EVENING, AND  
POSSIBLY EXTENDING EAST OF NYC. PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE FOR  
DAMAGING WINDS. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR  
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.  
 
THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES BACK SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT  
THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL WAVE EXITS  
NORTHEAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED  
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FORECASTED  
CLOSER TO THE NBM GIVEN SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN WHERE SATURDAY  
MORNING AND STALLS NORTH. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES SATURDAY INTO  
SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH  
AND STALLS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT. WE'LL BE WARM SECTORED AS THE WARM FRONT  
SURGES NORTH MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING CANADIAN LOW. THIS  
LASTS INTO TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
THE FRONT STALLS OVER US ON SUNDAY AMONG AVAILABLE 12Z  
GUIDANCE.  
 
THE STALLED FRONT SURGES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY,  
BEING CAPTURED BY AN OCCLUDED CANADIAN LOW AND MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE. THIS LEAVES US WARM-SECTORED UNTIL A COLD FRONT  
PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH  
THIS TIMEFRAME.  
 
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD  
AGAIN, LEAVING US DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES  
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID  
ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM  
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO MVFR 02Z TO 03Z, EXCEPT AT  
KGON AND KBDR WHICH REMAIN VFR. CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLIER. THE  
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR, AND  
POSSIBLY TO IFR TOWARD 00Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER, KBDR, KHPN, AND  
KGON LIKELY REMAIN VFR.  
 
WINDS REMAIN NE TO E THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ANY REMAINING  
GUSTS ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY  
MORNING, LIKELY LESS THAN 20KT, AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE  
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR BY  
LATE THIS EVENING, AND WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING. ALSO, AMENDMENTS  
LIKELY FRIDAY FOR TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, AND THEN  
LOWERING AGAIN TO MVFR LATE DAY.  
 
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
 
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY, LOWERING TO IFR LATE. VSBY  
RESTRICTIONS IN FOG IS ALSO LIKELY LATE.  
 
SATURDAY: IFR OR LOWER IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED  
INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS 4-5 FT SHOULD PEAK AT 5-7 FT FROM VERY  
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHILE PERSISTENT E FLOW INCREASES  
TO 20-25 KT. WINDS DROP BELOW 25 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS  
SHOULD TAKE UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY  
NIGHT, AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NUISANCE  
FLOODING IN URBAN, LOW LYING, AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE  
CYCLE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF NY HARBOR, JAMAICA BAY, AND S  
NASSAU, WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SOUND IN WESTCHESTER AND  
FAIRFIELD IN SW CT, WITH UP TO A FOOT OF INUNDATION EXPECTED.  
 
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR UP TO A HALF FOOT  
OF INUNDATION ALONG THE VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE PECONIC AND  
SHINNECOCK BAYS. WATER LEVELS NEAR RIVERHEAD COULD BE LOCALLY  
HIGHER, WITH UP TO A FOOT OF INUNDATION POSSIBLE THERE.  
 
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN  
DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AS WATER LEVELS COME  
DOWN SLIGHTLY.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL SOUTH SHORE LONG ISLAND  
AND NYC BEACHES FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS OF 3-3.5 FEET WITH A LONG  
SHORE CURRENT WILL LEAD TO THIS HIGH RISK. SURF HEIGHT LOWERS TO  
2 FEET ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW, SO THE RIP CURRENT RISK  
WILL LOWER TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR CTZ009.  
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR NYZ071.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ072-  
074-075-178-179.  
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-  
106-108.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-  
355.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR  
NEAR TERM...BG  
SHORT TERM...BG  
LONG TERM...BR  
AVIATION...MET  
MARINE...BG/BR  
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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