287
FXUS61 KOKX 270548
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
148 AM EDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT,
LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AND STALL TO THE NORTH. AS A
FRONTAL WAVE PASSES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL
DRIFT BACK SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL SURGE NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A PASSING CANADIAN LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE DURING MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PROVIDING
SOME LIFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY OTHERWISE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
WINDS ON FRI SHOULD VEER MORE TO THE SE, WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND ONLY THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
FROM NYC NORTH/WEST. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS COMPARED TO THOSE OF THU AFTERNOON, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS INTERIOR S
CT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 70-75.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT, EXPECT A NON-
DIURNAL TEMP CURVE, WITH EVENING LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. THEN
TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S, WITH DEWPOINTS ALSO FOLLOWING SUIT. ALSO EXPECT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT,
AND SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM A WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
* MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
* UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
* DRYING OUT MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY, A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES
THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND STALLS TO OUR NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT IN WARMER,
WETTER AIR. CONFIDENCE IN THE WARM FRONT'S PASSAGE HAS BEEN LOW
CONFIDENCE PRIOR TO THIS, BUT MOST 12Z GUIDANCE NOW AGREES ON
ITS PASSAGE NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC NBM (WHICH IS
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE). HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER-80S FOR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA (NEAR NYC AND NE NJ) AND ARE IN
THE LOW-80S/UPPER-70S FOR NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
(NEAR SE CT).
AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES ON SATURDAY, A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. THIS OCCURS IN TANDEM WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
INCREASES UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ALOFT. GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THEREFORE, WPC HAS
GONE WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR AREAS N & W
OF NYC WHERE SOME OF THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED. MLCAPE
COULD PEAK TO AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG IN THIS AREA. GIVEN WARM
TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MOISTURE, THIS COULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES. IN ADDITION TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, EXPECTED
SHEAR AND SOUNDING PROFILES LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER N&W OF NYC SATURDAY EVENING, AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING EAST OF NYC. PRIMARY RISK WOULD BE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
AS A RESULT, SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA.
THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES BACK SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE FRONTAL WAVE EXITS
NORTHEAST. THIS PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY, THOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FORECASTED
CLOSER TO THE NBM GIVEN SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN WHERE SATURDAY
MORNING AND STALLS NORTH. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT, THE WARM FRONT PUSHES BACK SOUTH
AND STALLS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT. WE'LL BE WARM SECTORED AS THE WARM FRONT
SURGES NORTH MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING CANADIAN LOW. THIS
LASTS INTO TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
THE FRONT STALLS OVER US ON SUNDAY AMONG AVAILABLE 12Z
GUIDANCE.
THE STALLED FRONT SURGES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY,
BEING CAPTURED BY AN OCCLUDED CANADIAN LOW AND MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THIS LEAVES US WARM-SECTORED UNTIL A COLD FRONT
PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH
THIS TIMEFRAME.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
HOLD AGAIN, LEAVING US DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC.
MARGINAL MVFR CIGS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING AT MOST
TERMINALS, WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 15Z FRI. CIGS THEN LOWER
ONCE AGAIN AFTER 3Z SAT, WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST. CIGS AND POTENTIALLY VSBYS GO IFR INTO SAT AM.
WINDS REMAIN E TO NE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING, WITH
GUSTS DEVELOPING BY MID MORNING, LIKELY REMAINING LESS THAN
20 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER SE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING BY 00Z SAT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, AND THEN FOR THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR.
GUSTS ON FRIDAY MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY, LOWERING TO IFR LATE.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY LATE.
SATURDAY: IFR OR LOWER IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND HAS BEEN EXTENDED
INTO FRI NIGHT. SEAS 4-5 FT SHOULD PEAK AT 5-7 FT FROM VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WHILE PERSISTENT E FLOW INCREASES
TO 20-25 KT. WINDS DROP BELOW 25 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS
SHOULD TAKE UNTIL LATE FRI NIGHT TO SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT.
HYDROLOGY
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF NUISANCE
FLOODING IN URBAN, LOW LYING, AND/OR POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ALONG THE SHORELINES OF NY HARBOR, JAMAICA BAY, AND S
NASSAU, WELL AS ALONG THE WESTERN SOUND IN WESTCHESTER AND
FAIRFIELD IN SW CT, WITH UP TO A FOOT OF INUNDATION EXPECTED.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR UP TO A HALF FOOT
OF INUNDATION ALONG THE VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE PECONIC AND
SHINNECOCK BAYS. WATER LEVELS NEAR RIVERHEAD COULD BE LOCALLY
HIGHER, WITH UP TO A FOOT OF INUNDATION POSSIBLE THERE.
ADDITIONAL SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE, AS WATER LEVELS COME
DOWN SLIGHTLY.
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR ALL SOUTH SHORE LONG ISLAND
AND NYC BEACHES FRIDAY. SURF HEIGHTS OF 3-3.5 FEET WITH A LONG
SHORE CURRENT WILL LEAD TO THIS HIGH RISK. SURF HEIGHT LOWERS TO
2 FEET ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW, SO THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL LOWER TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ071.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR
NEAR TERM...JC/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...DR/MET
MARINE...BG/BR
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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