575
FXUS61 KOKX 280847
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY, THEN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWINGS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY TAKES CONTROL ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. ADDED DRIZZLE
WORDING IN ADDITION TO MAKING THE MENTION OF RAIN BEING LIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO
CONVEY LESS OF A VAST RANGE AND LESS SPATIAL VARIANCE. EXPANDED
ALONG THE COAST THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER PER MODEL
NEAR ZERO SHOWALTER INDICES TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STARTS WEAKENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
AS THE WARM FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA. LIFT WITH THE FRONT IS
WEAK WITH LITTLE TO NO SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT NEARBY TO ADD A MORE
ORGANIZED AREA OF FORCING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK LIFT,
LIKELY FROM OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, SO SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDER
CHANCES OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY APPEAR LIMITED WITH WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOSING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE. HAVE
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM AROUND THE NYC METRO
ON WEST, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT AREAWIDE. THE
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND NEARBY WARM FRONT ALSO SUPPORT MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG. TURBULENT MIXING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PREVENT ANY OF THE FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY WILL INCREASING HEAT INDICES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE
MORNING. A SHOWER OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AND
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. ANY LOW CLOUDS,
DRIZZLE AND FOG DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND HEATING TAKES PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW 80S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW INFLUENCE. HOWEVER, THE
NYC METRO, NE NJ, AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD RISE INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 70S
YIELDING MAX HEAT INDICES IN URBAN NE NJ IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE COAST AND INFLUENCE OF THE MARINE
LAYER.
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPPING AROUND 5 KFT
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND THERE MAY BE A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL
CAP/WARM AIR TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HEIGHTS ALOFT
SHOULD FALL A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME FROM SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND SOME LIFT FROM WEAK ENERGY ALOFT. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND ABOUT 25 KT OF
0-6 KM UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE STRONGER FLOW/SHEAR LOOKS TO
RESIDE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND GREATER INSTABILITY LIKELY
REMAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. CAMS HAVE SIGNALED POTENTIAL
OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE EVENING. AS THE
LINE ENCOUNTERS THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT, THE LINE SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT TOWARDS OR JUST AFTER SUNSET. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WEST OF LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AS PWATS ARE INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.80 IN. HOWEVER, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL LIMIT DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD
THREAT. MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING SOME DRIER AIR TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND LINGERING
TROUGHING JUST TO OUR EAST SETS THE STAGE FOR A PREDOMINATELY
WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD HOLD OFF SEA BREEZES UNTIL
POTENTIALLY LATE IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. HEAT INDICES
LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE AS DEW POINTS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER 60S DUE TO THE WESTERLY FLOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THURSDAY
* LESS HUMID TOWARDS THE 4TH OF JULY
A TYPICAL SUMMER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACES DURING THE PERIOD. A
SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ARE PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH, MOST NOTICEABLY
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD LATER TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST OF THESE COLD FRONTS WILL BRING THE REGION A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. DUE TO
LARGE SCALE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. FOLLOWED THE NBM CLOSELY HERE
WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. HAVE GONE SOLID CHANCE THUNDER DUE TO
FORECASTED HEIGHT FALLS AND GOOD AGREEMENT ON TROUGH AND FRONTAL
TIMING. SHOULD BE IN-BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND ANY SHORTWAVE
FEATURES ON WEDNESDAY, SO DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE IT SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY DRY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THURSDAY, BUT AT
THIS TIME NWP IS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL FORCING
WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL SERVE
MAINLY TO LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEK TOWARDS THE 4TH OF
JULY HOLIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING.
OVERALL STAYED VERY CLOSE TO NBM GUIDANCE WITH ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS OVERALL WITH POP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AND POCKETS OF DRIZZLE, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHES OF FOG. THE
WARM FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD TOWARDS
SATURDAY EVENING / NIGHT.
HAVE SETTLED INTO MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR
EARLY THIS MORNING AT A FEW TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS
FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY MVFR AND IFR FOR KGON.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR KISP AND KBDR THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE BRIEF AS
MVFR AND IFR RETURN INTO SATURDAY EVENING. FOR KGON AND POSSIBLY
KISP, LOW STRATUS COULD RETURN BUT OTHERWISE FOR ALL TERMINALS THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BRING
TEMPORARY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR SATURDAY EVENING.
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDER AT KSWF SO TEMPO GROUP FOR THAT
TERMINAL AS OPPOSED TO PROB30 FOR THE OTHERS.
REGARDING WINDS, IT WILL BE AN OVERALL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND
5 TO 10 KT FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WINDS THEN BECOME MORE SE
LATER SATURDAY, AND EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE S LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN WIND SPEEDS, EXCEPT
WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY EVENING WHICH COULD BRING A SUDDEN
SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND HIGHER GUSTS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS REMAIN LIKELY FOR SOME FLUCTUATION BETWEEN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.
AMENDMENTS ALSO LIKELY TO REFINE THE TIMING AND PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT: ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END TOWARDS
OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY, ALTHOUGH
MVFR MAY LINGER.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
NIGHT. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DAY INTO
EARLY EVE.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS
AND WAVES SHOULD START TO APPROACH SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT. THEREAFTER, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN
INTO MID AND LATE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE QUICK MOVING LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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