182
FXUS61 KOKX 010617
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
217 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
MADE MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST A SMALLER RANGE, LOW TO MID 70S
WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MADE
RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE UNSTABLE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 03-06Z WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING AROUND 12Z.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, SO ANY SHOWERS AND STRONGER STORMS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK
INCH PLUS OF RAIN LOCALLY. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE S/SW OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD TUESDAY MORNING, AND
DESPITE WHAT COULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START, IT SHOULD BE A DRY
MORNING. I HAVE LOWERED THE NBM POPS FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING.
IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER
70S.
BY LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO
GET TEMPERATURES RATHER WARM. TEMPERATURES DID COME DOWN A DEGREE OR
TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, AND A FEW 90S IN THE NYC/NE NJ URBAN CORRIDOR WITH DEW
POINT READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S, HEAT INDICES
SHOULD GET INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 90S. NO PLANS FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME.
A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST APPROACHES WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND BACK TO THE WEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. CAMS SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS 16-18Z, THEN POPS SHOULD RAMP UP RATHER QUICKLY AROUND
OR AFTER 18Z. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL
HAS THE THE REGION IN THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDED INTO NJ AND TOUCHING PARTS OF NYC AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH CHANCES TRAILING OFF GETTING TOWARDS AND AFTER 06Z. WITH
FRONT APPEARING A BIT SLOWER NOW, SHOWER CHANCES CARRY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR FAR EASTERN SECTIONS. A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT
WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S WELL NORTHWEST, TO MOSTLY
LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY, AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA AND SLIDES OFFSHORE. WITH THE FRONT STILL NEARBY, EXPECT CLOUDS
AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING LATER IN DAY. IT DOES
REMAIN HUMID, BUT NOT AS BAD AS TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST US FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT MOVES
WITHIN THE TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE TROUGH LINGERS OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
OVERHEAD TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN THURSDAY, BUT GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GIVEN THE AMPLE SURFACE HEATING AND POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, POP-
UP SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FOR INLAND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND STALLS
OVER THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CATEGORIES VARYING MOSTLY MVFR/VFR, EXCEPT MOSTLY MVFR/IFR EAST
OF THE CITY TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING PUSH. MOSTLY VFR
OTHERWISE THEREAFTER OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS. THUDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE
SUNRISE TODAY, THEN AGAIN MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.
WINDS MOSTLY SW 5-10KT, INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHTER TONIGHT AS THEY SHIFT MORE
WESTERLY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES, ESPECIALLY
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY. TIMING OF POTENTIAL -SHRA/TSTM THIS
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD PREVAIL TONIGHT INSTEAD OF VFR.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR WITH -SHRA, CHANCE OF IFR EAST
OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE DAY INTO EARLY EVE, HIGHER CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC TERMINALS.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND OCEAN SEAS WILL
BUILD MOSTLY TO 4-6 FT AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT RESULTING IN SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, EXPECT
MAINLY SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SOME OF EASTERN NON- OCEAN WATERS
MAY SEE MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
ADVISORIES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN ON THE OCEAN WITH A W-SW WIND AND OCEAN SEAS MAINLY AROUND 4
FT.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN SUB-SCA ON ALL WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
EXCEPT FOR SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND, THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY. WITH HIGH PW IN PLACE
INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGH, LEADING TO A
LOCALIZED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS, CONFINED MOSTLY TO URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW TUESDAY WITH BUILDING SEAS AND
SWELLS WILL RESULT IN THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR SOUTH
FACING OCEAN BEACHES, ESPECIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ355.
AVIATION...JC
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