865
FXUS61 KOKX 011850
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND MOVE THROUGH BY THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ATTM SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S INVOF NYC AND IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
ANTICIPATED, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES 95-99 AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT,
AND SOME 100+ VALUES AT KEWR/KJFK.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS STARTING IN A FEW SPOTS, WITH A COUPLE
OF CELLS ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING SW-NE FROM HUNTERDON
COUNTY NJ UP INTO FAIRFIELD CT, ALSO TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL
NJ/ SE PA AND TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH MAY CLIP THE LOWER REACHES OF NYC TOWARD 20Z, WHILE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR CWA MAY ALSO START TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AND STORMS IN THE CATSKILLS APPROACH
ORANGE/PUTNAM/N FAIRFIELD/N NEW HAVEN. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SCATTERED AT MOST INITIALLY AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE AREA,
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALL WEAK, THEN MAY INCREASE AFTER
20Z-21Z AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN PA
GETS CLOSER. NO SEVERE TSTM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA
YET, BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH PW
UP TO 2.1 INCHES AND PRECIP EFFICIENCY OF 1.7 INCHES
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER PULSE OF CONVECTION LATER IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE PRIMARILY NON-SEVERE
DUE TO LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND AS PREVIOUS ACTIVITY
WILL HAVE WORKED THE AIR MASS OVER.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, MOSTLY VIA HIGH INSTANTANEOUS RAINFALL RATES, ALSO
WHERE ANY TRAINING OF CELLS CAN OCCUR GIVEN DEEP LAYER SW FLOW
WITH MID LEVEL FLOW NO STRONGER THAN 30-35 KT.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MORE OR LESS SLOWING LATE AT NIGHT LOOK FOR
A DAMP AND CLOUDY, MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS
BOTH IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WILL STILL HAVE LIKELY POP ACROSS LONG ISLAND/SE CT AND CHANCE
POP FOR THE REST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WELL NW OF NYC AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND WASHES OUT. BY AFTERNOON MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT PERHAPS EASTERN LONG ISLAND,
WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM COULD LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE OF TUE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH/WEST OF NYC WHERE THE SUN SHOULD PEEK
OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE, AND
UPPER 70S RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE OF SE CT AND EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 FOR NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS, AND DROPPING INTO THE
MID 60S IN THE AFTERNOON NORTH/WEST, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NO
HIGHER THAN 90 IN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
WED NIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR, AND A LITTLE COOLER AT LEAST
OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO AREA, WITH LOWS FROM THE LOWER 70S IN
THE METRO AREA TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLIGHTLY, TO THE LOWER/MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
**KEY POINTS**
* A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
* A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY AND WEEKEND AHEAD, WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
THE NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED WITH THIS UPDATE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES. AN UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO NEW
ENGLAND TO START THE PERIOD. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WELL
TO THE NORTH THEN DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME MARGINAL LAPSE
RATES/ MUCAPE (500-1000 J/KG) AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~30 KTS.) BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK PASSES NEARBY.
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE SOME ORGANIZED, ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
WITH ANY STORM. WITH PWATS AROUND 1.25" AND STEERING FLOWS NEAR
30KTS, THE PROBABILITY OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS QUITE LOW.
THEREAFTER, UPPER RIDGING COMMENCES WITH RISING HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS A BIT COOLER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
(TDS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S) AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
(AND HUMIDITY) EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY AND STALLS OVER THE
AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VFR TO START THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHRA, WITH POSSIBLE TSRA,
DEVELOPS INTO LATE AFT AND COULD LEAD TO MVFR OR IFR VSBYS AT
TIMES. BEST WINDOW FOR TSRA GENERALLY BTWN 19Z AND 01Z WED. SHRA
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT, AND MVFR CIGS LIKELY PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT UNTIL DAYBREAK OR SO, THEN IMPROVEMENT AND RETURN TO VFR
THRU MID MORNING.
WINDS SW 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. FLOW
BECOMES LIGHTER TONIGHT, AND SPEEDS REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KT ON
WED.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START TIME OF POTENTIAL SHRA/TSTM THIS AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF
AN HOUR OR TWO.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED AM COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE WED AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY PM: MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE AFT.
THURSDAY: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE DAY INTO EARLY EVE, HIGHER CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC TERMINALS.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, S FLOW WILL INCREASE, WITH OCEAN
SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5 FT AND PERHAPS A FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT
ON THE OUTER WATERS MAINLY E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT. TSTMS MAY POSE A HAZARD OF GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING,
HEAVY RAIN, AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS INTO TONIGHT AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER OUTSIDE OF ANY
TSTMS ON THU.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH HIGH PW IN PLACE, INSTANTANEOUS
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH, WITH A LOCALIZED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. REPEATING/TRAINING CELLS
COULD LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK, WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SW FLOW WITH SPEEDS GETTING OVER 30 KT IN THE MID LEVELS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY, AND THIS COULD ALSO
BE THE CASE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS NOT COMING DOWN
MUCH, ALONG WITH A LINGERING 9-SECOND E SWELL COMPONENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DBR
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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