887
FXUS61 KOKX 221113
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
713 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN TODAY, MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT
AND OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TODAY, BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. ALOFT, HEIGHTS MAY LOWER A BIT EARLY TODAY AS WE
STILL HAVE WEAK MEAN TROUGHING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OFF
THE CANADIAN COAST. WE EVEN MAY HAVE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE BROADER TROUGH. BY TONIGHT A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN.
THE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF NYC AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FEW REASONS FOR THIS.
YESTERDAY, GUIDANCE GREATLY UNDERESTIMATED THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A
SHORTWAVE AND A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH LED TO A BROKEN LINE OF
LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. WHILE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT SET UP
TODAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND AND COULD
EVEN HAVE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
NOSING INTO OUR AREA, ALL WHILE POTENTIALLY HAVING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE, BUT GIVEN
WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND THE CAMS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY, DECIDED TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WINDS GO REAL LIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER US. IT
MAY BE ORIENTED IN A WAY WHERE THE FLOW, WHILE LIGHT, BECOMES MORE
ONSHORE, SO DID NOT GO BELOW NBM. HOWEVER, POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN AND HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THE AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH THURSDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
POTENTIAL START OF HEAT HEADLINES. STUCK WITH NBM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AS DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY LOOK MORE REASONABLE THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE DEWPOINTS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WILL RESULT IN MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS OTHER THAN EASTERN
LI AND EASTERN CT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST SO THE NBM WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT FRI/FRI NIGHT
THEN AGAIN FROM THE FRONT STALLING TO THE SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND.
* HEAT INDEX MAY EXCEED 100 BY FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PASSING INTO EAST QUEBEC FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS THROUGH A
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING EAST AND HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
EXCEED 100 FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME
SPOTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD SEE SOLID
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY WITH HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
POSSIBLY BEING MET IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAT, WHILE LOWER, WILL
STILL BE STRONG INTO SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOWER A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING, AND
REMAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS NE 10 KT OR LESS BECOME E BY 15Z, AND THEN SE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, REMAINING GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS. AFTERNOON TO LATE
DAY SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT KBDR, KGON, KJFK, AND KISP. WINDS
LIGHT TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LATE DAY, 22Z/23Z, SEA BREEZE LIKELY AT KJFK. WINDS REMAIN SE
AT THE OTHER SITES.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY: VFR. SOUTH WINDS G20-25KT, HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
FRIDAY: VFR LIKELY THROUGH MORNING, POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
SUB VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY: VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PICKS
UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT GUSTS ON ALL WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
BEING OF THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA GUSTS ON THE
WATERS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE TODAY AS
FORECAST EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN HIGHER THAN NWPS WITH
THE EASTERLY WAVE COMPONENT SO WENT WITH A BLEND. THIS
COMBINATION LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOWER END MODERATE
RISK. FOR WEDNESDAY, KEPT LOW RISK FOR NOW BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
TREND HIGHER.
IN ADDITION, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WATER LEVELS COME CLOSE OR
JUST TOUCH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE MOST VULNERABLE
SOUTHERN BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, CURRENT THINKING LEANS TOWARDS JUST
FALLING SHORT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS, SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED ANY COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JT/MW
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JT/MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JT/MET
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