223
FXUS61 KOKX 221555
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1155 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING
OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE LATER WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BUILD THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. ALOFT, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND MORE SO TONIGHT AS A LARGE SCALE
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN.
THE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS COOL IN SOME PLACES AS LAST NIGHT.
MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS
OF NYC AND SURROUNDING AREAS, MAINLY SW PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FEW REASONS FOR THIS. YESTERDAY, GUIDANCE GREATLY
UNDERESTIMATED THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE AND A SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH LED TO A BROKEN LINE OF LOW TOPPED
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. WHILE A BIT OF A DIFFERENT SET UP TODAY,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND AND COULD EVEN
HAVE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH NOSING
INTO OUR AREA, ALL WHILE POTENTIALLY HAVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVE THROUGH ALOFT. ALSO THERE REMAINS A SHALLOW LAYER OF
INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE THE LCL. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE, BUT GIVEN
WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY AND THE CAMS AT LEAST HINTING AT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINTAINING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
WINDS GO REAL LIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
AREA. IT MAY BE ORIENTED IN A WAY WHERE THE FLOW, WHILE LIGHT,
BECOMES MORE ONSHORE, SO DID NOT GO BELOW NBM. HOWEVER,
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CONDITIONS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND THIS WILL RESULT
IN LOWER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN AND HEIGHTS RISE STEADILY THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THE AXIS SHIFTS THROUGH.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH THURSDAY LOOKING LIKE THE
POTENTIAL START OF HEAT HEADLINES. STUCK WITH NBM TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS AS DEWPOINTS ACTUALLY LOOK MORE REASONABLE THAN THEY
HAVE BEEN, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE DEWPOINTS, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WILL RESULT IN MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 100 FOR MOST LOCATIONS OTHER THAN EASTERN
LI AND EASTERN CT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25
MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST SO THE NBM WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED.
KEY MESSAGES:
* SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT FRI/FRI NIGHT
THEN AGAIN FROM THE FRONT STALLING TO THE SOUTH ON THE WEEKEND.
* HEAT INDEX MAY EXCEED 100 BY FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
A SERIES OF MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
A LOW PASSING INTO EAST QUEBEC FRIDAY MOVES INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW BRINGS THROUGH A
COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT THEN
STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH
MOVING EAST AND HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
EXCEED 100 FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME
SPOTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 105. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD SEE SOLID
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY WITH HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
POSSIBLY BEING MET IN SOME AREAS. THE HEAT, WHILE LOWER, WILL
STILL BE STRONG INTO SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95-100
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES LOWER A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ANY REMAINING NE OR E WINDS AROUND 10 KT SHIFT SE THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN GENERALLY 10-15 KT OR LESS. AFTERNOON TO LATE DAY
SEA BREEZES LIKELY AT KBDR, KGON, KJFK, AND KISP. WINDS LIGHT TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. LIGHT SE/S WIND PICK BACK UP AFTER
14Z WEDNESDAY AROUND 10 KT. SOME GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN FREQUENCY AND
OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LATE DAY, 22Z/23Z, SEA BREEZE LIKELY AT KJFK. WINDS REMAIN SE
AT THE OTHER SITES. SOME GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY: VFR. SOUTH WINDS G20-25KT, HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
FRIDAY: VFR LIKELY THROUGH MORNING, POSSIBLY FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF
SUB VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY: VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS OR
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW PICKS UP ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 25 KT GUSTS ON ALL WATERS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE BEING OF THE OCEAN WATERS. WINDS MAY APPROACH
SCA GUSTS ON THE WATERS AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE TODAY AS
FORECAST EASTERLY WIND SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY.
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONSISTENTLY BEEN HIGHER THAN NWPS WITH
THE EASTERLY WAVE COMPONENT SO WENT WITH A BLEND. THIS
COMBINATION LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOWER END MODERATE
RISK. FOR WEDNESDAY, KEPT LOW RISK FOR NOW BUT THIS MAY NEED TO
BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE IF THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW
TREND HIGHER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JE/JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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