102
FXUS61 KOKX 260849
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
449 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING. A SECOND COLD FRONT FOLLOWS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO END THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED NORTH/NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT, A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION BRINGING
DEWPOINTS SOME 5-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN ON FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE DAY WITH A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST, AND THE UPPER
80S FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR. GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS, HEAT INDICES
TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BECOMES MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SLOW TO MOVE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. PRECIP
CHANCES THUS INCREASE ON SUNDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
FRONT SLIDES NEAR THE AREA. INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LOOKS
WEAK IN THE AM, SO ANY THUNDER LOOKS ISOLATED INITIALLY. MID AND LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED FOR AT LEAST PART OF
SUNDAY AM, SO PRECIP MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY INITIALLY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN PWAT, WITH OVER 2" BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000J) AND SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ~30KTS) WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WITH CLOUD COVER AROUND, HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S, WITH A
MORE HUMID FEEL AS DEWPOINTS REBOUND INTO THE LOW 70S BY SUNDAY
EVENING UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
AN INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
BACK IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, H850 TEMPERATURES APPROACH 20-21C MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINT IN THE MID 70S (PER NBM). THUS, HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 FOR
NORTHEAST NJ AND 95-100 ELSEWHERE LOOK POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH NO CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO AROUND 105F.
WEDNESDAYS HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN BELOW 100.
* A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
* TEMPERATURES TREND DOWN TO END THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER
THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL START OFF FROM THE NORTH AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS WILL
VEER INTO SATURDAY BECOMING SE BY AFTERNOON 7-10 KT. TONIGHT, WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WINDS VEERING TODAY MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO CONDITIONS STAYING
BELOW SCA LEVELS.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON SUNDAY THAT RESULT IN NUISANCE
FLOODING. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, BUT
THE OVERALL WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY WITH A MIXTURE OF
LINGERING 1 TO 2 FT S WIND SWELL AND A DEVELOPING 3 FT WIND
WAVE.
BASED ON RCMOS AND NWPS GUIDANCE, THE MODERATE RIP RISK
CONTINUES ON SUNDAY, WITH LINGERING 1 TO 2 FT S WIND SWELL AND
A DEVELOPING 3 FT WIND WAVE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BC/DBR
NEAR TERM...DBR
SHORT TERM...DBR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/DBR
HYDROLOGY...BC/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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