430
FXUS61 KOKX 110514
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
114 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE BASED OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE REGION AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES MID WEEK.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. RIVER
VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT WILL
ALSO BE A BIT MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 60S WITH SOME OUTLYING AREAS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
FOR MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BUT WEAKENS IN MAGNITUDE. THE SYNOPTIC SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. FORECAST 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIKEWISE ARE EXPECTED TO TREND A LITTLE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. MORE LOCATIONS REACH LOWER 90S
INCLUDING LOCATIONS WITHIN NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NYC,
NORTH SHORES OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND PARTS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CT. OTHERWISE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE 80S.
THE WARMEST SPOTS, AWAY FROM SOUTH SHORELINES, HAVE CORRESPONDING
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, MAKING HEAT INDICES
RIGHT NEAR THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. MAX HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE LOWER
90S FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. SW FLOW REMAINS IN THE LOW LEVELS BUT
WILL DECREASE. WINDS BECOME NEARLY CALM IN SOME LOCATIONS. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. ONLY HINTED
AT THE LOWER STRATUS IN THE FORECAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS,
MORE OVER LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVERAGE, TOOK A BLEND OF MAV/MET/NBM WITH A
SLIGHT DECREASE TOWARDS WESTHAMPTON NY FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, RANGING FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST REGION.
FOR TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS MORE AT THE SURFACE AND
REMAINS BASED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INCREASE IN PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP AS A PARENT LOW APPROACHES QUEBEC.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A WARMING TREND COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS NIGHT AND PREVIOUS DAY WITH SYNOPTIC SW FLOW
INCREASING TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD REACH NEAR 19 DEGREES
C FOR THEIR 850MB TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF
THE REGION HAS A RANGE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S, ONCE AGAIN, HEAT INDICES ARE AROUND THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE WITH MOST VALUES IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED FORECAST HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
MOSTLY WITHIN THE INTERIOR ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK RIDGING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH OFF SHORE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE CITY AND THE COAST
TOWARDS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS APPROACH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND REMAINING IN CONTROL, PUSHING
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY
FOR INLAND AREAS, AND LOW TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 99 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN LONG ISLAND, NYC, NE NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CT, SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED
FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
LIGHT SW WINDS AT NYC METRO TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH DAY BREAK. SW WINDS INCREASE A BIT AFTER
12-14Z, THEN SHIFT TO THE S AROUND 10 KT LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. S WINDS START TO WEAKEN TOWARDS SUNSET AND BECOME
LIGHT SW OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP CONDITIONS ON ALL FORECAST WATERS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH A LACK OF ANY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS AND WAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AT
OCEAN BEACHES DUE TO CONTINUED E-ESE SWELLS WITH AROUND 3 FT
WAVES AND A 7-9 SECOND PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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