443
FXUS61 KOKX 120613
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH
OFF THE EAST COAST. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY,
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, AND LINGERING NEARBY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY RETURNS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH A
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING SOUTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.
ANY PATCHY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS ERODES QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK,
AND THE NEARBY HIGH MAINTAINS ANOTHER DAY OF DRY AND SUNNY WEATHER.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CIRRUS VEIL, SKIES REMAIN ABUNDANTLY SUNNY,
WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCALES WEST
OF THE HUDSON.
WARM AIR IN PLACE ALOFT, 850MB TEMPS PROGGED AROUND 18-19C AND
925 MB IN THE MID 20S, SHOULD ALLOW MOST TO ACHIEVE UPPER 80S OR
LOWER 90S AT THE SURFACE. A STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW WILL LEAD TO
A SUBTLE INCREASE IN DEW POINTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, MAKING
FOR A MORE MUGGY FEEL TO THE AIR LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN WITH DEW
PTS INTO THE UPPER 60S THOUGH, HEAT INDICES LIKELY ONLY NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES WITH PEAK VALUES INTO THE
LOWER 90S.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. COULD SEE A BIT MORE
COVERAGE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT INTO WED AM RELATIVE TO
PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST.
RIDGING GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH
SWINGS EAST THROUGH CANADA. HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS IN PLACE
OFFSHORE WEAKENS AND SLIDES WELL SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TO THE AREA. THE NATIONAL BLEND WAS FOLLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES,
BUT BLENDED IN CONSALL TO LOWER DEW PTS SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT AND DECENT MIXING TOWARD
AND 850 MB EXPECTED, BUT STILL COULD SEE DEW PTS GET INTO THE
LOW 70S, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY, GENERALLY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TRI STATE, BUT THE INCREASED MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO HEAT INDICES SEVERAL ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHEST VALUES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, MAINLY ACROSS NYC, NE
NJ, AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THURSDAY NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID, VALUES LIKELY DECLINE A FEW DEGREES FROM
WEDNESDAY WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, AND NOT CONFIDENT WE'LL SEE
WIDESPREAD 95F+ HEAT INDICES BOTH DAYS. SO WHILE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A HEAT HEADLINE COULD STILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WED/THU, FORECAST VALUES AT THE MOMENT DO NOT WARRANT
ISSUANCE OF AN ADVISORY WITH THIS UPDATE. MORE LIKELY, PEAK
HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, AND INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH, EXPECT
SCATTERED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OFF TO
THE WEST AND ADVANCE INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NE NJ BY
MID AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWATS
WILL BE PRESENT, SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND BEST FORCING IS
LOCATED WELL NORTH, SO COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF ANY CONVECTION
APPEAR RELATIVELY LIMITED AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCE OF A STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC,
WHERE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING WITH ANY ACTIVITY.
IN ADDITION, PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR OR OVER 2 INCHES, AND WITH A DEEP
10KFT+ WARM CLOUD LAYER EXPECTED, EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES FOR
THIS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NE
NJ, WHICH LINES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH WHERE WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLINED. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMA
HOWEVER, QPF IS LOW OVERALL, GENERALLY AT OR UNDER A QUARTER INCH,
AND ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT THEN LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING
APPEARS UNLIKELY.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW AS IT CROSSES THE REGION, AND MAY NOT FULLY
ADVANCE EAST UNTIL LATER THURSDAY MORNING. THE NEARBY BOUNDARY KEEPS
POPS ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH NOT A WASHOUT, A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AT TIMES.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO FULLY DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.
A SLOW MOVING COLD PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM CONTINUING. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND REMAINING IN CONTROL, PUSHING SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
UPPER 80S FOR MOST SPOTS AND AROUND 90 IN NE NJ AND NYC METRO.
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
YIELD MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S IN THE WARMEST SPOTS.
THIS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AS THE 2 DAY CRITERIA LOOKS UNLIKELY TO BE MET WHEN FACTORING
IN THE WARMEST DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
TYPICAL HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
LEVELS FOR SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR-MVFR FOG OR CEILINGS TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT TERMINALS.
LIGHT SW OR VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 12Z. SW WINDS INCREASE AFTER 12Z
AND SHIFT TOWARDS THE S LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND OR OR
JUST OVER 10 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW THIS EVENING AND DECREASE
OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE TONIGHT: MVFR-IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST
OF NYC METRO TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR-IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF LATE DAY/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MVFR OR LOWER. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT RESULT IN MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AREAS WEST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW HOWEVER.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ALONG OCEAN BEACHES DUE TO PERSISTENT E-ESE SWELLS
WITH 2 TO 3 FT WAVES AND AN 8 TO 9 SECOND PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR/DS
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DR
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