623
FXUS61 KOKX 130717
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
317 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT THEN
SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THEREAFTER INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY, MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL
NEARBY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN FROM THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. THIS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION BY LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING WITH THE FRONT. BULK SHEAR
0-6 KM AGL MAX NEAR 20 KT AND SURFACE CAPE MAX NEAR 1000 TO
2000 J/KG, SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG AND COULD EASILY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN CONSIDERING NEAR 2 INCHES PWATS PREDICTED OVER THE
REGION.
THE SW FLOW CONTINUES TODAY WHICH COULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
CONCERNING THE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES, THE FORECAST USED THE
NBM FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURES BUT A BLEND OF MET MOS, MAV MOS AND NBM
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS DEWPOINTS FROM NBM ALONG SEEMED TOO HIGH. MAX
TEMPERATURES ARE OVERALL PRETTY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY ALTHOUGH
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER. MAX TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM NEAR 80 TO NEAR 90. MAX HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S FOR PARTS OF NYC, PARTS OF NORTHEAST NJ, PARTS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CT. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY LOWER 90S FOR MAX HEAT INDICES. TAKING THE PREVIOUS DAY
HEAT INDICES INTO ACCOUNT, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND
OFFSHORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH A LACK OF BULK SHEAR (STILL MAX APPEARS TO BE NEAR 20 KT
0-6 KM AGL) AS WELL AS CAPE LIMITED TO NEAR 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, LESSENING
STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
AND FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BECAUSE OF THIS, WENT A LITTLE LOWER WITH MAX TEMPERATURES. FOR
PARTS OF THE REGION, NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WILL HELP
LIMIT DEWPOINTS.
OVERALL EXPECTING A COOLER BUT STILL SOMEWHAT HUMID DAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES RANGE WITHIN THE 80S, HIGHEST AROUND NYC METRO AND
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR, UPPER 80S. MAX HEAT INDICES WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70, MAINLY LOWER 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MORE
EASTERLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED,
DOWN MORE IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF THURSDAY BUT THE LOWER DEWPOINTS MAKE FOR HEAT INDICES
NEARLY THE SAME AS THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
TREND COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT (NEAR 60 TO NEAR 70) COMPARED TO
THURSDAY NIGHT (LOW 60S TO LOW 70S).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AND THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS
PERIOD.
RELATIVELY QUIET AND PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING IN
PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY AS A RESULT, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST, GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS BECOMES SW SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY
AS BROAD TROUGHING SLIDES EAST OVER CANADA. THIS INTRODUCES THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN. THE SW FLOW HELPS ADVECT IN SOME WARMER
AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, AND SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD, WITH UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR MOST AWAY FROM THE COAST.
DOESN'T APPEAR AT THIS POINT THOUGH THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE
BL WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SUPER SULTRY CONDITIONS, SO HEAT
INDICES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THOSE AIR TEMPERATURES WOULDN'T WARRANT
A HEAT ADVISORY AS IT STANDS NOW.
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THE BOUNDARY APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER NEARBY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BROADER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST, KEEPING RIDGING TO THE WEST. A DEVELOPING FRONTAL
WAVE OFF TO THE WEST COULD KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP AT TIMES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY.
MAINLY VFR TO START, EXCEPTION BEING POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS DEVELOPING AT EASTERN TERMINALS INTO THE MORNING, PRIMARILY
KGON, THOUGH PERHAPS KBDR AND KISP AS WELL. APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTRODUCES CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM THREAT GENERALLY BETWEEN 20Z ON
THE EARLY SIDE THROUGH AROUND 3Z THU, WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA AT NYC TERMINALS BETWEEN
21Z AND 1Z.
LIGHT VRB/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE RAMPING UP TOWARD 10
KT OR SO, AND BACKING MORE TO THE S BY AFTERNOON. FLOW LIGHTENS
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN AND BECOMES VRB AT MOST TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
TIMING OF AFT/EVE CONVECTION MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT: CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER WEAK THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) THRESHOLDS.
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WITHIN URBAN, LOW-LYING, AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES AND SLOWER THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT AS WELL AS
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL ENABLE FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED.
OVERALL BASIN AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM NEAR A
QUARTER TO NEAR 1 INCH OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
THEREAFTER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS MODERATE AT
THE NEW YORK CITY OCEAN BEACHES, AND LOW AT NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
OCEAN BEACHES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ005>007.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/DR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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