335
FXUS61 KOKX 141033
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
633 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES FAR OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES IN FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY, MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEARBY,
AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST GRIDS. THERE IS SOME FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT CONVECTION,
MAY END UP BEING LESS COVERAGE THAN FORECAST. LIKEWISE, THIS
WOULD LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY. WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOT EVIDENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION, ACTUALLY HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY RISE, SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING SOME SORT OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN SMALLER
LESS ORGANIZED AREAS TRAVERSING THE LOCAL AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION BUT APPEARS TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. MODELS CONVEY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT.
THE CAMS EXHIBIT VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AND A LACK OF COHERENCY
IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS. THE UNCERTAINTY THEREFORE IS GREATER
AND POPS STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY DO INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO CHANCE LEVELS AND REMAIN AT CHANCE LEVELS
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING. HIGHEST
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE FORCING AND BULK SHEAR OF 0-6 KM AGL ONLY 20 KT WILL BE LIMITING
TO THE STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, WITH SOME DECREASE
IN STEERING FLOW AND WEAKENING OF THE COLD FRONT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM THAT DO FORM WILL BE SLOWER MOVING. THIS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A HYDROLOGY ISSUE BUT LACK OF ORGANIZATION
SHOULD PRECLUDE SUFFICIENT AREAL EXPANSION AND AGGREGATE
DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERISTIC OF MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION. SOME
CAMS JUST DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION WHILE OTHERS SHOW MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE CONVECTION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE FROM THE NBM WHICH HAVE RECENTLY
PERFORMED BETTER THAN MOS IN BEING THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOLUTION
COMPARED TO MOS. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND SOME EXTRA SUN IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE POTENTIAL IN
TEMPERATURES BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST. DEWPOINTS FROM NBM WERE
LOWERED WITH MORE MOS FAVORED FOR THIS PARAMETER. MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, RESULTING MAX HEAT
INDICES WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE (I.E. LOW 90S). THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FOR TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE
ENTIRE REGION AND PUSH SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY BUT WITH A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT. AS A RESULT, SOME AREAS COULD GET SOME FOG WITH OVERNIGHT
COOLING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FAVORED
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AND GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN MORE CONTROL
OF THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
FROM SE CANADA AND THEN REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS ALLOW FOR A MORE EASTERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY MODIFY THE LOCAL AIRMASS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES EXHIBIT A
COOLING TREND DUE TO GREATER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW. AT NIGHT, BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME
OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY COULD DEVELOP SOME FOG BUT
COVERAGE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED WITH THIS UPDATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH VARYING SHOWER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
* ABOVE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MID AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWS FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH WEAK
RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING
RETROGRADES WEST BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING ANOTHER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND BY MIDWEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. LREF MEAN SOUNDINGS VIA DESI FOR THE REGION DO HAVE
SOME MUCAPE (~500-1000J/KG) AND PWATS NEAR 2.0", BUT BULK SHEAR
REMAINS LESS THAN 20KTS, WITH BETTER FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA. SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, AND WILL
USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS.
THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY. WITH WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN EACH DAY, BUT BY NO
MEANS IS THE PERIOD A WASHOUT.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND STALLS OVER, OR JUST SOUTH, OF THE
TERMINALS TODAY.
MVFR CIGS IN STRATUS THOUGH 12-14Z, ESPECIALLY FOR KGON, KISP,
KBDR, KHPN AND KSWF. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 13-15Z, THEN MVFR
IN SHOWERS/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30S,
GIVEN QUESTION OF SPATIAL COVERAGE OF ANY TSTMS.
WINDS LGT AND VAR THIS MORNING BECOME NORTHERLY BY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN FOLLOWS IN THE AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY LIGHT N/VRB FLOW THU NGT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF TSRA MAY BE 1-2 HOURS OFF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: MORNING -SHRA AND MVFR POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH SWELL
ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN. FOLLOW THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(WWW.HURRICANES.GOV) FOR THE LATEST ON ERIN.
HYDROLOGY
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WHILE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO GET TO SCATTERED AT MOST, THE HIGH
PW VALUES OF NEAR 2 INCHES AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL OF TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED AND MOSTLY MINOR
NUISANCE, CONFINED TO LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
BASIN AVERAGED AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT STAY UNDER A HALF INCH.
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS
THEREAFTER THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
FOR TODAY, THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES. WINDS ARE NEAR 5 MPH OR LESS AND WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
BE 2 FT OR LESS.
FOR FRIDAY, FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 5 TO 10 MPH. A 2 TO 3 FT 4 SECOND
PERIOD SWELL DEVELOPS BUT THIS WILL BE MORE OF AN ALONG SHORE
CURRENT, RESULTING IN WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ONLY FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 1 FT OR LESS. THEREFORE, WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WINDS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY AND WAVES EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE LESS, THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/DBR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...JM/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM
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