245
FXUS61 KOKX 141721
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
121 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY, MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEARBY, AND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WEAK FORCING AND MID LEVEL DRY
AIR LIKELY THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS. ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT
DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, BUT WILL BE ISOLATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE FROM THE NBM WHICH HAVE RECENTLY
PERFORMED BETTER THAN MOS IN BEING THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SOLUTION
COMPARED TO MOS. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND SOME EXTRA SUN IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE POTENTIAL IN
TEMPERATURES BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST. DEWPOINTS FROM NBM WERE
LOWERED WITH MORE MOS FAVORED FOR THIS PARAMETER. MAX TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE MAINLY FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, RESULTING MAX HEAT
INDICES WILL JUST BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURE (I.E. LOW 90S). THIS IS BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
FOR TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE
ENTIRE REGION AND PUSH SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY BUT WITH A
WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, THE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT. AS A RESULT, SOME AREAS COULD GET SOME FOG WITH OVERNIGHT
COOLING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE MORE FAVORED
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED EARLIER RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM AND GOING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN MORE CONTROL
OF THE LOCAL WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA
FROM SE CANADA AND THEN REMAINS CENTERED NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS ALLOW FOR A MORE EASTERLY FLOW
TO DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY MODIFY THE LOCAL AIRMASS.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND TEMPERATURES EXHIBIT A
COOLING TREND DUE TO GREATER EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW. AT NIGHT, BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME
OUTLYING AREAS ACROSS LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY COULD DEVELOP SOME FOG BUT
COVERAGE IS MOSTLY EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED WITH THIS UPDATE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY POINTS:
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH VARYING SHOWER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.
* ABOVE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
MID AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALLOWS FOR NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH WEAK
RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGING
RETROGRADES WEST BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING ANOTHER TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND BY MIDWEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. LREF MEAN SOUNDINGS VIA DESI FOR THE REGION DO HAVE
SOME MUCAPE (~500-1000J/KG) AND PWATS NEAR 2.0", BUT BULK SHEAR
REMAINS LESS THAN 20KTS, WITH BETTER FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA. SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY, AND WILL
USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS.
THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY. WITH WEAK
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN EACH DAY, BUT BY NO
MEANS IS THE PERIOD A WASHOUT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH FRIDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
LIGHT FLOW TO START THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME SW-S UNDER 10
KT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NE WINDS CONTINUE
FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NYC TERMINALS N AND W.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH SWELL
ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN. FOLLOW THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(WWW.HURRICANES.GOV) FOR THE LATEST ON ERIN.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
FOR TODAY, THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES. WINDS ARE NEAR 5 MPH OR LESS AND WAVES ARE FORECAST TO
BE 2 FT OR LESS.
FOR FRIDAY, FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. WINDS BECOME MORE
EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 5 TO 10 MPH. A 2 TO 3 FT 4 SECOND
PERIOD SWELL DEVELOPS BUT THIS WILL BE MORE OF AN ALONG SHORE
CURRENT, RESULTING IN WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ONLY FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 1 FT OR LESS. THEREFORE, WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WINDS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY AND WAVES EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE LESS, THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST
AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JM/DBR
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DBR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DBR
HYDROLOGY...JM/DBR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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