621
FXUS61 KOKX 150023
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
823 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES SUNDAY, MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS FOR THE MOST
PART HAS LIMITED CONVECTION TO A FEW CELLS THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER. THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE FRONT WILL PUSH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUS, WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THREAT FOR A BIT LONGER.
OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S FOR COASTAL AREAS WHILE INTERIOR
AREAS DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR AREAS OUT EAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO A
DRY PATTERN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS A
POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT THAT COULD LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR NW
OF NYC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MORE THAN LIKELY, IT WILL STAY DRY.
GIVEN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN LIGHT/CALM WINDS AT
NIGHT, ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PATCHY FOG EXIST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHTS.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST. SATURDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR THE AREA WHILE NYC METRO AREAS MAY ONLY DROP INTO THE
LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
KEY POINTS:
* FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY, EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
* ABOVE SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY BECOMING BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AT THIS TIME, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK WIND SHEAR. THERE MAY EVEN BE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT (STABILIZING EFFECT). HOWEVER, THESE DETAILS SHOULD BE BETTER
RESOLVED ONCE WE GET WITHIN THE CAMS 48H WINDOW.
THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WHILE WHAT IS FORECAST
TO BE HURRICANE ERIN STARTS TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THEN EVENTUALLY A MORE NE TRACK BASED ON A
CONSENSUS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS ALWAYS INHERENT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
PLEASE ALWAYS REFER TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AS FOR ANY IMPACTS, IT LOOKS ALMOST
CERTAIN THAT LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BRING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO
THE OCEANFRONT NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR RAIN, CHANCES WILL BE LOW DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK, BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF ERIN, RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW COULD BE
STRENGTHENED. FOR THE TIME, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS RAIN FROM FRONTAL WAVES TO THE WEST TRIES OVERRUN
THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SIMPLY WASH OUT BY
THURSDAY AS NORTHERLY FLOW BRIDGES ACROSS IT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WNW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE EASTERLIES WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MON-WED IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL ALSO BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND/PINE BARRENS REGION OF LI TO THE
MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NYC METRO.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER FOR FRIDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT THIS EVENING.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING NE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. NE WINDS CONTINUE FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING SE IN
THE AFTERNOON 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS LOWER FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER
THAN FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NYC TERMINALS N AND W.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH THE SWELL ON
THE OCEAN WATERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FROM DISTANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN. SEAS ON TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT. FOLLOW THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(WWW.HURRICANES.GOV) FOR THE LATEST ON ERIN.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT
THURSDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES. WINDS
ARE NEAR 5 MPH OR LESS AND WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FT OR LESS.
FOR FRIDAY, FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 5 TO 10 MPH. A 2 TO 3 FT 4 SECOND PERIOD SWELL
DEVELOPS BUT THIS WILL BE MORE OF AN ALONG SHORE CURRENT, RESULTING
IN WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE ONLY FORECAST TO BE NEAR 1 FT OR LESS.
THEREFORE, WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND WAVES EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS, THERE IS ALSO A
LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST AT THE OCEAN BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...BR/DW
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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