367
FXUS61 KOKX 151201 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
801 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
SLIDE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON SUNDAY, PASS THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL FOLLOW FOR EARLY WEEK BEFORE MOVING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR MID WEEK. AS THE HIGH
DEPART WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE COULD MOVE ALONG THE FRONT INTO
PARTS OF THE REGION AROUND MID WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
DRY WX EXPECTED AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH, WITH NE
FLOW BECOMING SE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE LOWER
THAN THOSE OF THU AND ARE A LITTLE ABOVE A MOS/NBM MIX,
REACHING 90 IN NE NJ AND THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO ACTUAL AIR TEMPS DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE A MAV/MET BLEND, WITH LOWER 70S FOR NYC
AND VICINITY, AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE SFC HIGH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE SAT AFTERNOON WHILE HEIGHTS
FALL ALOFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WELL NW OF NYC. FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT AND CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGHOUT, AND UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
LOW TEMPS SAT NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI NIGHT, IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
WITH THE SFC HIGH OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY, WINDS VEER SW AND TRANSPORT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
INTO THE CWA. TEMPS INLAND SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S,
WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL SE. THIS
COMBO OF HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD GET THE HEAT INDEX TO
95 IN MUCH OF NE NJ, WITH LOWER 90S MOST ELSEWHERE. THERE IS THE
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM MAINLY NW OF NYC, WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AS CSU-MLP INDICATES A MARGINAL SVR RISK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A LONGWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN US AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES ALOFT FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FOR EARLY AND MID WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SLOWS DOWN ON ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE FROM SE CANADA BUILDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
TO MORE SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THEREAFTER THROUGH
MID WEEK.
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AND MORE NORTHWARD POSITION THAT
WOULD MOVE INTO MORE PARTS OF THE LOCAL REGION.
THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. SUNDAY NIGHT, CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EVENING.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDER IS THE INSTABILITY. NEXT WILL BE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
ALSO, THE MODEL PROJECTION CONSENSUS OF CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
ERIN SHOWS A TRACK GOING THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
HURRICANE, STAYING OFFSHORE AND THEN FARTHER OFFSHORE TOWARD THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SEE THE MARINE AND TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING SECTIONS FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS NEXT WEEK WITH ERIN
PASSING WELL OFFSHORE. ALSO, REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF ERIN.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK, THEN
GETTING CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR STRATUS AND FOG OCCURRING LATE THIS
EVENING INTO START OF THE OVERNIGHT. NOT ALL SITE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR, JUST A FEW. HAVE A BRIEF TIME FOR KJFK, KISP, KSWF
AND KGON WITH MVFR AROUND 8-12Z SATURDAY.
REGARDING WINDS, N-NE FLOW NEAR 5-10 KTS BECOMES MORE SE THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR 10-12 KTS. A FEW GUSTS TO 16-18 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS AND BECOME MORE
EASTERLY.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 16-18 KT ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE TONIGHT: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS AND FOG. OTHERWISE,
VFR.
SATURDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR STRATUS AND FOG IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER BRIEFLY
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
QUIET COND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 1 FT ON THE PROTECTED WATERS AND NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT ON THE
OCEAN UNTIL LATE DAY SUNDAY, WHEN A SOUTHERLY AMBROSE JET MAY
BUILD SEAS TO 3 FT ON THE WATERS W OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN START TO INCREASE WITHIN SCA
LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SCA SEAS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORECAST TRACK AND SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN. THE SCA OCEAN CHANCES KEEP INCREASING
MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. IT IS DURING THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME, THAT LONG PERIOD SWELL WOULD BE COMING INTO THE OCEAN
WATERS ACCORDING TO SOME MODEL GUIDANCE. NON-OCEAN ZONES STAY
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ATTM.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
SATURDAY. ONSHORE SE WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD BE A LITTLE LIGHTER ON SAT, WITH SEAS 2 FT AT 8 SEC
GENERATING SURF NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AS BUILDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM ERIN ARRIVE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY
ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG
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