800
FXUS61 KOKX 160851
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
451 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DISSIPATE
TONIGHT, THEN ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH INTO MID WEEK. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO
PASS WELL OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE LOCAL REGION THEREAFTER FROM THE WEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MOST OF THE AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW CLOUDS EXCEPT FOR SOME PARTS
OF SE CT, WITH A FEW SLOW MOVING SHOWERS OVER ORANGE AND W
PASSAIC ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. EXPECT THESE LOW CLODS TO BURN OFF BY AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S IN MOST PLACES, MAYBE SOME UPPER
80S IN NE NJ AND ISOLATED SPOTS IN ORANGE/ROCKLAND FARTHER AWAY
FROM ANY MARITIME INFLUENCE AS WINDS BECOME SE-S. THERE IS THE
CHANCE OF A LATE DAY TSTM WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT MAINLY WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC ACROSS ORANGE/W PASSAIC AND
INTO PUTNAM/ROCKLAND, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM AS FAR SE AS THE CITY AND INTO WESTCHESTER/FAIRFIELD.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING AS A LIGHT S FLOW CONTINUES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN/AROUND NYC, TO THE
MID 60S IN OUTLYING AREAS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH HOT AND HUMID AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON A SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS
HIGH AS THE MID/UPPER 90S FOR ONE DAY. THIS AIR MASS WILL ALSO
BE UNSTABLE, WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH
0-3 KM SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 M/S NORMAL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT
COULD LEAD TO AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. CSU-MLP CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL SVR
RISK, WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES A LIMITING FACTOR.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM HE NORTH AND AN UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING
FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
BE COOLER, WITH HIGHS 75-80, AND LOWS MON NIGHT RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S IN NYC.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOLLOWED NBM BUT DID MANUALLY LOWER POP TOWARD/DURING MID WEEK
AND THE WINDS WERE INCREASED A SMALL AMOUNT ABOVE NBM FOR THE
MID WEEK PERIOD.
NW UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL
TROUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ONE PASSING
THROUGH FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN, A GRADUAL RESUMPTION OF
RIDGING AND EVENTUAL ZONAL FLOW IN MID LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SLOWLY SLIDES FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HURRICANE ERIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FARTHER NORTHWEST WITHIN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN
RECURVE OUT TO SEA FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
RESIDUAL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ERIN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIN,
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
ONLY ERIN IMPACTS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY ARE FOR THE OCEAN AND
ADJACENT SHORELINES RELATED TO HIGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS, AND POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION, THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR WESTERN AND
INTERIOR AREAS AND MAINLY FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. SHOWER CHANCES LOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MVFR STRATUS PREVAILS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED IFR STRATUS
INITIALLY GOING INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WITH
THESE AS THEY ARE MOSTLY LIGHT. ONLY BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
FORECAST.
THE STRATUS SCATTERS OUT MID TO LATE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THEN SOME SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS, MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KSWF FOR MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH PROB30 FOR TSRA,
18Z SAT TO 00Z SUN.
WINDS WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND
DIRECTION VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY AT NIGHT, AND MAINLY SOUTHERLY
DURING THE DAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
END TIME OF MVFR COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF. COULD VERY WELL
HAVE MORE MVFR THAN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: POSSIBLE EARLY MVFR STRATUS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR. POSSIBLE SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
DURING THE DAY.
MONDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR. OTHERWISE, VFR. NE
WINDS G15-20KT DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND MVFR, MAINLY AT NIGHT. E WINDS
G15-20 KT INTO EARLY EVE.
WEDNESDAY: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND MVFR. E WINDS G15-20KT.
MARINE
QUIET COND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1 FT
ON THE PROTECTED WATERS AND NO HIGHER THAN 2 FT ON THE OCEAN
THROUGH DAYTIME SUNDAY. OCEAN SEAS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 2-3
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS SW FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KT AND AS THE
FIRST SWELLS FROM ERIN START TO ARRIVE. THESE SWELLS COULD REACH
5 FT ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET BY MON
AFTERNOON, AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON THE OCEAN MON NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SCA CRITERIA EASILY MET
FOR THE OCEAN ZONES WITH SEAS TRENDING HIGHER AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS BUILD. WIND GUSTS FORECAST COULD REACH 25 KT WED INTO WED
NIGHT. MOST OF THE NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND E OF THE MOUTH OF THE CT
RIVER, WHERE SOME HIGHER SEAS UP TO 5 FT ARE FORECAST
WED NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ATTM.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES TODAY.
ONSHORE SE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT, WITH 1-2 FT WIND WAVES
AND A 1-FT SE SWELL AT 8-9 SEC GENERATING SURF NO HIGHER THAN 2
FT. THE RISK SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY, WITH A
STRONGER S-SW WIND UP TO 10-15 KT WITH A LONGER PERIOD 2-FT SE
SWELL AT 10 SEC.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY, POSSIBLY
HIGH RISK AT THE ERN SUFFOLK BEACHES. THEREAFTER THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS NEXT WEEK, MAINLY
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AS BUILDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM ERIN
ARRIVE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY ALSO BECOME
POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page