707
FXUS61 KOKX 162241
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
641 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PUSH OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLS WEST OF THE AREA BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO
HURRICANE ERIN WHICH PASSES WELL TO THE EAST OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. PLEASE
REFER TO NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON ERIN.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING CAN BE
MADE OUT NEAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DESPITE WEAK OVERALL
FORCING, THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP IN AND AROUND OUR AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC. SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NO ORGANIZATION/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND SOME LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED
SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GET TOO LOW. FOLLOWED THE
NBM FOR LOWS, UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING ON SUNDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT. A S/SW FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MOISTURE CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO
AROUND 99 FOR MANY. THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
TO ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FEATURES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO FIRE UP WELL TO OUR
WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN HEAD
THIS WAY. WHILE OVERALL FORCING IS BETTER THAN TODAY, BOTH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
JUST ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN
THREAT IN ANY OF THESE CELLS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THE SEVERE
THREAT IS STRONGEST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AND WILL LIKELY END
AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER, SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING A
GUSTY N/NE FLOW. THIS LOOKS TO PEAK MONDAY MORNING WITH 20 TO 25
MPH GUSTS. 30 MPH GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN LI AND THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF LI. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS BUILDING IN, AND
SOME BROKEN CLOUDS, WE LIKELY DO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ON
MONDAY.
WINDS WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. STILL, IT WILL BE A DRY AND COOL NIGHT
GIVEN THE AIRMASS, UPPER 50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 60S
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
HURRICANE ERIN MOVES NORTHWARD WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING
IN ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A PERSISTENT
E/NE FLOW. THIS DIRECTION OF THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S.
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY, IT SLOWS DOWN AS IT RUNS
INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE AND MAY STALL WEST OF THE AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST
WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY CAPPED, WHICH SHOULD
LARGELY PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN A BIT AS HURRICANE ERIN'S NORTHWARD
APPROACH ALTERS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY FROM THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THIS
ENERGY EVENTUALLY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO HURRICANE ERIN AS IT
RECURVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE ONLY IMPACTS ANTICIPATED LOCALLY FROM HURRICANE ERIN ARE FOR THE
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SHORELINES RELATED TO HIGH SEAS, DANGEROUS SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS, AND POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION. FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIN,
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY MAY APPROACH THE
AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
VFR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KSWF WITH
MVFR THROUGH 00Z, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWERS POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM AT KEWR, KTEB, AND KHPN. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING 03Z OR POSSIBLY LATER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY
MORNING, BY 16Z, AND MAY IMPROVE EARLIER.
WIND SE TO S GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS, BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS
EVENING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS. A SW FLOW
DEVELOPS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING INLAND TOWARD
18Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER THAN FORECAST
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR. WINDS S/SW G15-20
KT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. WINDS NE
G20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY: VFR DURING THE DAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR AT TIMES.
THURSDAY: VFR. WIND NE G20-25 KT EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH A
GUSTY E/NE FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH 5 FT SEAS AND 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS.
AS OF RIGHT NOW, SUB 25 KT GUSTS ARE FORECAST ON ALL OTHER WATERS,
BUT THE UPWARD TREND IN THE WIND FORECAST MAY CONTINUE. SEAS REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS FROM HURRICANE ERIN MOVE
INTO THE AREA.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SCA CRITERIA EASILY MET FOR THE
OCEAN ZONES WITH SEAS TRENDING HIGHER AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS BUILD.
WIND GUSTS FORECAST COULD REACH 25 KT WED INTO WED NIGHT. MOST OF
THE NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA EXCEPT FOR
LONG ISLAND SOUND E OF THE MOUTH OF THE CT RIVER, WHERE SOME HIGHER
SEAS UP TO 5 FT ARE FORECAST WED NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY, WITH A STRONGER S-SW WIND UP TO 10-15 KT WITH A LONGER
PERIOD 2-FT SE SWELL AT 10 SEC.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY THOUGH IT WAS
BORDERLINE HIGH RISK DUE TO INCREASING SWELL AND WAVES TOWARD
THE AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS NEXT WEEK, MAINLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, AS
BUILDING LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM ERIN ARRIVE. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION MAY ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JT/MW
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JT/MW
HYDROLOGY...JT/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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