702
FXUS61 KOKX 041211
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
811 AM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND WASH OUT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY WHICH
PROVIDES FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
THE MORNING. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH INCREASES SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES A
BIT GIVEN THE WAA AND WARMER MID-LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING THE WESTERN AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOW 60S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NOT
CHANGING MUCH AS THE AREA WILL REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE PERSISTENT S/SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY RISING INTO
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
ANOTHER MORE POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE INCREASE HEATING AND MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. AS ANY CONVECTION PUSHES EAST INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STABLE AND THEREFORE LESSEN THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR LI AND EASTERN AREAS. EITHER WAY,
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON SUNDAY WE'LL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN
ANOMALOUS 3- 4 STD CLOSED LOW TROUGH SITUATED OVER ONTARIO AND
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH RIDGING OFFSHORE. AT THE SURFACE, A
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, EXITING LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NW DISPLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH MAKES FOR A SLOW PROGRESS OF THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, LIKELY NOT CLEANLY
WORKING THROUGH ENTIRELY UNTIL SUNDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE AND
SECONDARY FRONT, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, IN THE WAKE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE, COOLING
DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES GOING FROM ABOUT 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, TO AROUND 5 BELOW NORMAL AS MODERATING CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE TODAY AND GIVES WAY TO
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PASS OR WASH OUT
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL TONIGHT. APPROX 3-7Z MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH SHRA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT STILL
POSSIBLE. THEN A RETURN TO VFR INTO TOMORROW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH 14Z. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING FOR
MOST TERMINALS NEAR 20 KT. WINDS SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE DAY TOMORROW, REMAINING SOUTHERLY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME PEAK GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. TIMING
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. S GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS LIKELY
AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
OCCASIONAL BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. S-SW GUSTS 15-20 KT. GUSTS DIMINISH
DURING THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AT NIGHT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA COND EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 25-KT GUSTS IN S FLOW LATE DAY
TODAY ON THE OCEAN WATERS JUST E OF SANDY HOOK.
SW WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT LIKELY DEVELOP ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS WELL
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TOWARD 5
FT DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
WINDS SUBSIDE SAT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, SHIFTING NW SAT NIGHT,
WITH SEAS FALLING BELOW SCA. CONDITIONS THEN APPEAR TO REMAIN
UNDER SCA CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
S WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH, HIGHEST
IN THE NYC METRO AREA UP INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MIN RH IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AS LOW AS 40-45% ACROSS NE NJ UP INTO THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, 45-50% ACROSS SOUTHERN CT, AND 50-55%
ACROSS LONG ISLAND. KBDI VALUES ARE ALSO RUNNING OVER 300 FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. WITH THIS IN MIND, IN COLLABORATION WITH NYS
DEC AND WFO ALY DECIDED TO ISSUE SPS FOR ELEVATED FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR TODAY
10 AM TO 7 PM.
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY NW OF NYC TONIGHT, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINS EXPECTED FROM
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NYC METRO
AREA NORTH/WEST.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS THAT RESULT COULD
CAUSE MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
LOCALES. THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NYC AND NASSAU BEACHES
TODAY WITH 2 TO 3 FT ESE SWELLS AT 8 SECONDS, AND AN ONSHORE
WIND UP TO 15 KT, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A BIT LIGHTER FLOW GOING
EAST SHOULD MITIGATE THE RISK A BIT, AND LOW IS FORECAST FOR
SUFFOLK BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE ACROSS ALL LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES
ON FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING 3 TO 4 FT S SWELLS AND SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 15 KT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK MAY NEED AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BR/DR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BR/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BR/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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