173
FXUS61 KOKX 041843
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
243 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT, DISSIPATING OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW TROUGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PA AND UPSTATE NY ADVANCES EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHANNELING A MOISTURE AXIS OF
INTO THE REGION, AND PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 1.5 IN BY THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH IT, AND A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 6 PM OR 7 PM. PROFILES DEPICT
A HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, SO WHILE SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T
ANTICIPATED LOCALLY, A BRIEF GUSTY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY
AND NE NJ. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL, BUT
LIKELY LIMITED TO LOCALIZED MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN
ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT, THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS ALONG AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS LI AND S CT, BUT A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS MAY
SURVIVE INTO THESE AREAS TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED
QPF IS LIGHT OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTIVE MAXIMA, GENERALLY UNDER A
TENTH OF AN INCH, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD AND
MOIST COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DEW PTS IN
THE 60S REGIONWIDE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS THE WORK WEEK COMES TO A CLOSE, THE REGION REMAINS ON THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OFF TO THE NW.
SOME STRATUS AROUND TO START THE DAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE THROUGH WASHES OUT. THE CLOUD COVER ERODES
INTO LATE MORNING, SETTING UP A WARM SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP S/SW FLOW PERSISTS, AND GUSTS 20 TO 25
MPH LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON WITH BL MIXING ABOVE 800
MB. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST, WITH
HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE URBAN NE NJ CORRIDOR. WITH THE WARMTH,
HUMIDITY LIKELY A BIT MORE NOTICEABLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY EARLY
IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INSTIGATES SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF IT OFF TO THE WEST,
WHICH COULD START TO LOWER CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* VERY WARM AND HUMID ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE STRONG/SEVERE.
* SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
* DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AROUND THE BASE
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FORM THE WEST SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500 J/KG) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW INCREASING TO 40-50 KT IN THE MID LEVELS) FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ESPECIALLY
FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND/SW CT AND POINTS NORTH/WEST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF FROPA GOING INTO SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH MODELS DEVELOPING A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT, AND
THE ECMWF SLOWER IN GENERAL VS THE GFS. FCST LIES BETWEEN THE TWO,
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP SAT NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POP
MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING OUT EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY AND COOLER WX EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S, AS A LARGE/STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CANADIAN ORIGIN MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TROF APPROACHES THIS EVE AND DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION TNGT.
VFR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN
CIGS AROUND 2000 FT ERN AREAS. CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AFT 23Z. A PROB30 WAS
INCLUDED FOR THIS. THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR ON FRI.
GENERALLY S FLOW THRU THIS EVE, VEERING TO THE SW TNGT. FLOW
AROUND 190 TRUE ON FRI. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT LIKELY THIS AFTN
AND AGAIN AFT 15Z FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTM TIMING THIS EVE. TIMING MAY BE ON THE
LATER END, AFT 00Z PER THE MODELING. HOWEVER, RADAR INDICATES
TIMING MUCH EARLIER, POSSIBLY AROUND 22Z EWR AND TEB. TAFS
INDICATE SOME EXPECTED SLOWING, BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODELS
SHOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
REST OF FRIDAY: VFR. S GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
SATURDAY: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND
TSTMS. SW FLOW BECOMING NW.
SUNDAY: BECOMING VFR.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCCASIONAL S GUSTS UP TO 25 KT REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE TODAY
ALONG LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. S GUSTS MAY
AGAIN GUST TOWARD OR JUST ABOUT 25 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND OCEAN SEAS BUILD TOWARD 5 FT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT
CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL.
CONDITIONS ON SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST
SHY OF SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN, WITH S FLOW GUSTING OVER 20 KT AND
SEAS JUST OVER 4 FT. SUB-SCA COND LIKELY THEREAFTER ON SUNDAY WITH
COLD FROPA, ALSO MIN-TUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
FIRE WEATHER
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY FOR ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD POTENTIAL UNTIL 8 PM
THIS EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, S WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH, HIGHEST IN THE NYC METRO AREA UP INTO
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS 40-45%
ACROSS NE NJ UP INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, 45-50% ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT, AND 50-55% ACROSS LONG ISLAND. KBDI VALUES ARE ALSO
RUNNING OVER 300 FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY NW OF NYC TONIGHT, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINS EXPECTED FROM
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NYC METRO
AREA NORTH/WEST.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF CAUSING
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCALES,
MAINLY FROM THE NYC METRO AREA NORTH/WEST WHERE EVENT TOTAL QPF
RANGES FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH. THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE REMAINS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NYC AND NASSAU
BEACHES TODAY WITH 2 TO 3 FT ESE SWELLS AT 8 SECONDS, AND AN
ONSHORE WIND UP TO 15 KT, WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A BIT LIGHTER FLOW
GOING EAST, AND A LOW RISK IS IN PLACE FOR SUFFOLK BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE ACROSS ALL LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES
ON FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING 3 TO 4 FT S SWELLS AND SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 15 KT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK MAY NEED AN
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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