546
FXUS61 KOKX 042058
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
458 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
A SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW TROUGH CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST
COAST SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS FAR
WESTERN PA AND UPSTATE NY ADVANCES EAST INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IS CHANNELING A MOISTURE AXIS OF
INTO THE REGION, AND PW CLIMBS TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH IT,
AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER
6-7 PM. PROFILES DEPICT A HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENT, SO
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER ISN'T ANTICIPATED LOCALLY, A BRIEF GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY AND NE NJ. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL, BUT LIKELY LIMITED TO
LOCALIZED MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THAN ANYTHING MORE
SIGNIFICANT. AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO
WASH OUT, THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS ALONG AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
LONG ISLAND AND S CT, BUT A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE
INTO THESE AREAS TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. ASSOCIATED QPF IS
LIGHT OUTSIDE ANY CONVECTIVE MAXIMA, GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF
AN INCH, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HUDSON.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK, BUT REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
AND MOIST COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
DEWPTS IN THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS THE WORK WEEK COMES TO A CLOSE, THE REGION REMAINS ON THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OFF TO THE NW.
SOME LOW STRATUS AROUND TO START THE DAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SHOULD ERODE INTO LATE MORNING, SETTING UP
A WARM SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP S-SW
FLOW PERSISTS, AND GUSTS 20-25 MPH LIKELY ONCE AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH BL MIXING ABOVE 800 MB. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP
NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S FOR MOST, WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE
URBAN NE NJ CORRIDOR. WITH THE WARMTH, HUMIDITY LIKELY A BIT
MORE NOTICEABLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, THOUGH ANOTHER APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INSTIGATES SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF IT OFF TO THE WEST, WHICH
COULD START TO LOWER CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* VERY WARM AND HUMID ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE STRONG/SEVERE.
* SHOWERS LINGER INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN CT.
* DRY AND COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AROUND THE BASE
OF A LARGER LONGWAVE TROUGH, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FORM THE WEST SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500 J/KG) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW INCREASING TO 40-50 KT IN THE MID LEVELS) FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS ESPECIALLY
FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND/SW CT AND POINTS NORTH/WEST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF FROPA GOING INTO SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH MODELS DEVELOPING A SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT, AND
THE ECMWF SLOWER IN GENERAL VS THE GFS. FCST LIES BETWEEN THE TWO,
WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POP SAT NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CHANCE POP
MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING OUT EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY AND COOLER WX EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S, AS A LARGE/STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OF CANADIAN ORIGIN MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A TROF APPROACHES THIS EVE AND DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION TNGT.
VFR INTO THIS EVE, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE ERN AREAS WITH
CIGS AROUND 2000 FT. CHANCES FOR SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS THIS
EVE AND OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z. THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS
AND DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH ALL AREAS VFR
ON FRI.
GENERALLY S FLOW THRU THIS EVE, VEERING TO THE SW TNGT.
FLOW AROUND 190 TRUE ON FRI. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT LIKELY THIS
AFTN AND AGAIN AFTER 15Z FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
UNCERTAINTY WITH TSTM TIMING THIS EVE. TIMING MAY BE ON THE
LATER END, AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER, RADAR INDICATES TIMING MUCH
EARLIER, POSSIBLY AROUND 22Z KEWR/KTEB. TAFS INDICATE SOME
SLOWING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
REST OF FRIDAY: VFR. S WINDS G20KT.
SATURDAY: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND
TSTMS. SW FLOW BECOMING NW.
SUNDAY: BECOMING VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
ISSUED SCA FOR NY HARBOR AND THE ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS, WHERE S
WINDS ARE SUSTAINED 20-25 KT AND GUSTING OVER 30 KT. EXPECT
THESE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AFTER 8-9 PM.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.
S WINDS MAY AGAIN GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AND OCEAN SEAS BUILD TOWARD 5 FT INTO FRI NIGHT. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE MARGINAL CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS ON SAT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE
JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN, WITH S FLOW GUSTING
OVER 20 KT AND SEAS JUST OVER 4 FT. SUB-SCA COND LIKELY
THEREAFTER ON SUNDAY WITH COLD FROPA, ALSO MIN-TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.
FIRE WEATHER
SPS CONTINUES FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY FOR ELEVATED FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD POTENTIAL UNTIL 8 PM. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, S WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH, HIGHEST IN THE
NYC METRO AREA UP INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 40-45% ACROSS NE NJ UP INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY, 45-50% ACROSS SOUTHERN CT, AND 50-55% ACROSS LONG
ISLAND. KBDI VALUES ARE ALSO RUNNING OVER 300 FOR MOST OF THE
CWA.
WETTING RAINFALL EXPECTED MAINLY NW OF NYC TONIGHT, WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINS EXPECTED FROM
SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM THE NYC METRO
AREA NORTH/WEST.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF CAUSING
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCALES,
MAINLY FROM THE NYC METRO AREA NORTH/WEST WHERE EVENT TOTAL QPF
RANGES FROM 1/2 TO 1 INCH. THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LOW.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HAVE FORECAST A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR FRI AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES, WITH 3 FT SEAS AND S WINDS 10-15 KT. THE RISK MAY
BECOME HIGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS S WINDS GUST OVER 20 KT
AND SEAS BUILD TO 4 FT.
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR SAT WITH SEAS IN LONG
FETCH S FLOW GUSTING OVER 20 KT REMAINING AT 4 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-
355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG
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