407
FXUS61 KOKX 050728
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
328 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH FROM LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SHOWERS WITH A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE OVER OR NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WEAKENING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SHOWER, SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT, BUT IT SHOULD FEEL MORE MUGGY
TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN RECENTLY AS DEWPOINTS AVERAGE 65-70 THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NBM WAS USED FOR BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING, THEN IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MLCAPES COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 1000-2000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WITH A VEERING PROFILE COUPLED WITH
POTENTIALLY 30-40KT SHEAR, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. HOW MUCH CLOUDS AND RESULTING DAYTIME HEATING REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ARE FACTORS IN THIS UNCERTAINTY. SO INSTABILITY COULD
ACTUALLY END UP GREATER WITH BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. AS
SUCH, SPC REMAINS WITH A MARGINAL (5% CHANCE) RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN IMPACTS WOULD BE
FROM WIND GUSTS, BUT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO. EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY WITH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEAR WOULD APPEAR TO BE.
PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AND WITH THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS SOME
HYDROLOGIC IMPACT POTENTIAL AS CONVECTIVE CELLS WOULD HAVE A CHANCE
TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATION. WPC HAS NOW INCLUDED MOST OF THE
AREA WITH A MARGINAL (5% CHANCE) RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR
SATURDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOTION LATE NIGHT SATURDAY AND MAY
NOT PUSH OFFSHORE UNTIL SOME POINT SUNDAY MORNING. STILL A CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING FROM AROUND NYC METRO TO POINTS
EAST, THEN LIKELY DRY EVERYWHERE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE AWAY FROM LI AND SE CT, BUT IN ANY
CASE, HIGH TEMPERATURES END UP IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH A
TREND OF DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY AND COOLER WX EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S/50S, AS A LARGE/STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
OF CANADIAN ORIGIN MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST.
THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES OF NOTE.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT STALLS OFF TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
VISIBILITY THROUGH 7-8Z. THEN, AS SHOWERS EXIT, MVFR WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT 1 TO 2KFT INTO THE START
OF THE MORNING PUSH. ALL TERMINALS GO TO VFR TOWARDS MID MORNING,
MAINLY BY 12-13Z. VFR THEN REMAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS VEER TO THE SW AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIGHTEN A
LITTLE. FLOW AROUND 190 TRUE ON FRIDAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT,
POSSIBLY EVEN UP TO 25 KT LIKELY TOWARDS 17-18Z FRI FOR SOME OF THE
CITY AND COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS WILL THEN END TOWARD MID EVENING
FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN AT 190 OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, 5-10KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ENDING TIME OF SHRA/TSRA MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR.
MVFR 1-2KFT CEILINGS 6Z-13Z IS LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. ITS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE AFTER RAINFALL ENDS, WE COULD GO, AND REMAIN, VFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE WITH A CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND
TSTMS. SW FLOW BECOMING NW.
SUNDAY: BECOMING VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS WEST OF MORICHES INLET DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT IN TIME AS SEAS COULD BE
ELEVATED AFTER 6AM. CHANCES ARE THAT IT WOULD MORE LIKELY BE EXTENDED
FOR WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS AND SEAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AN AMBROSE JET
FORMING. WINDS AND SEAS OTHERWISE DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN PICK
UP AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUST ON THE OCEAN COULD
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO AROUND 25KT. SEAS COULD TOUCH 5FT AT TIMES
AS WELL.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL,
WITH CHANCE THAT SWELL COULD HELP SEAS INCREASE TO 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH MOST OF THIS WOULD PROBABLY OCCUR IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION ENHANCES THE RAINFALL. FLOODING IMPACTS WOULD
MORE LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, BUT
FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS MARGINAL RISK (5%
CHANCE) OF FLASH FLOODING AT THIS TIME. CONFIDENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE
OF FLOODING IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT THE OCEAN BEACHES, WITH 4-
5 FT SEAS AND S WINDS AROUND 15 KT. WINDS AND SWELL MAY BE A LITTLE
LOWER FOR SATURDAY, SO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT IS
MOST LIKELY, BUT A HIGH RISK CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ345-353-355.
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