994
FXUS61 KOKX 060531
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY, AND PASS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY AND REMAINS IN
CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLC OVERNGT, KEEPING A RETURN
SLY FLOW IN PLACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY TO BUILD, AND
FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNGT. WINDS LOOK LIKE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, SO KEPT COVERAGE AS PATCHY.
OTHERWISE, NO PCPN IS EXPECTED, AND THE FCST FOLLOWS THE NBM
CLOSELY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA
ON SAT.
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING, SBCAPE IS MODELED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 2500 J/KG DURING THE DAY ON SAT FROM
APPROXIMATELY NYC TO POINTS N AND W, INCLUDING WRN CT. VEERING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT, WITH ABOUT 40KT AT H85, YIELD A BRN AROUND IN THE 15-30
RANGE, INDICATING ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IN ANY OF THESE AREAS WITH THE
CDFNT PROVIDING FOCUS BY 16-18Z. IN ADDITION, 0-3KM EHI OVER 2-3
FROM NEAR POU SWWD THRU THE CWA INDICATES A TOR RISK AS WELL.
STORM MODE FAVORS DISCRETE AND SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODES WITH
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE VALUES ABOVE 3 NEARBY AND JUST NORTH OF NYC.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK, AND THE GRIDDED FCST INCLUDES
SEVERE WORDING ALONG WITH THE HWO.
ACROSS ERN AREAS, THE FRONT WILL BE LATER, AND THE AREA WILL BE A
BIT MORE STABLE PER THE PROGS PER THE MARITIME SLY FLOW. CNTRL AND
ERN CT N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE A CHALLENGE WRT HOW HIGH
CAPE GETS BECAUSE OF THIS. THE NAM KEEPS THE HIGHEST CAPE CONFINED
TO JUST THE EXTREME NRN BORDER OF THE CWA, SO THE SVR RISK MAY
EXTEND A BIT LATER IN THE DAY IN THIS ZONE.
HEAVY RAIN A RISK AS WELL, WITH PWATS MODELED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
2.5 INCHES IN THE LLVL CONVERGENCE ZONE. STORM MOTION HOWEVER IS
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 15KT, POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.
A BIT BREEZY ON SAT AHEAD OF THE TSTMS WITH DEEP SWLY FLOW. WENT
ABV THE NBM IN THE GRIDS DURING THE DAY.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE COMPLETELY OFFSHORE AROUND 6Z, SO
THIS WILL END ANY RESIDUAL SEVERE THREAT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL SHWRS OR LGT RAIN HOWEVER WITH THE AREA IN THE RR QUAD OF
THE JET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
*TRENDING TOWARD MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN FOR SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
LONG ISLAND AND CT.
*MAINLY DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POST-FRONTAL RAIN WILL LINGER AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
LI/SE CT. HOWEVER, 12Z GFS SHOWING DECENT DEEP-LAYERED LIFT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BOTH DUE TO UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS. LATEST NBM WHICH WAS FOLLOWED HAS ALSO TRENDED
SLOWER WITH EXITING THE RAIN ON SUNDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE
FORECAST CHANGE COULD BE IMPACTFUL. OTHERWISE, HEIGHTS BUILD
NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO
THE AREA AND HOLDING ON FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TRENDS, SUNDAY COULD BE COOLER THAN
FORECAST.
IN ADDITION, BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL ALLOW
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUBTROP RIDGE TO BUILD CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FORECAST AREA TO BE CLOSE TO THE NW
PERIPHERY OF SOME OFFSHORE FRONTAL WAVE ACTIVITY. LATEST
FORECAST HAS LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS LI AND SE CT ON WEDNESDAY
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
A LATE WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
VFR TONIGHT FOR MOST TERMINALS. SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS MAY SEE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THIS MAY PUSH INTO
SOME OF THE METRO TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE FOR THESE
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH TOWARDS
MIDDAY, IMPACTING KSWF FIRST. NYC TERMINALS SEE HIGHER CHANCES MORE
LIKELY TOWARDS 19-20Z. MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER ABOUT 00Z LINGERING -SHRA IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR VSBY.
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUES FOR SATURDAY AT 10 KT TO 15 KT, WITH GUSTS 20 TO
25 KT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES LATER IN THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT, ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NW. OTHERWISE, WITH THE BOUNDARY SETTLING NEARBY THE
WINDS LIKELY GO VARIABLE IN DIRECTION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE CITY TERMINALS SATURDAY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS
TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR KJFK, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMENDMENTS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY
WITH WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS IN ANY STORMS, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS LATER AT NIGHT. WINDS BECOME NW AND N AT MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT
LATE.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING BECOMING VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
S WINDS WILL INCREASE TNGT, SO WITH BUILDING SEAS, A SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO SCA LVLS
ELSEWHERE ON SAT, PARTICULARLY ERN WATERS. IN ADDITION, STRONG
TSTMS AHEAD OF A CDFNT WILL IMPACT THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY WRN
PORTIONS, SAT AFTN AND INTO THE EVE.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WATERS. E WINDS COULD GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FT. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT AN E SWELL COULD HELP SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 FT ON
WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NGT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MINOR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOOD RISK AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CONCENTRATE OVER THE
MORE FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF NJ, OR IF AREAS ARE IMPACTED BY NUMEROUS
ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY.
LINGERING POST-FRONTAL RAIN ON SUNDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO POSE A
FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE IS A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING DUE TO
A COMBINATION OF A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW (S 15-20KT) AND
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES OF 4-5FT 6S. FOR SUNDAY, THE RISK AT THE
VERY LEAST WILL BE MODERATE, AND POSSIBLY HIGH WITH A BUILDING
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 3-4FT 7-8S. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE LESS OF A
FACTOR DUE TO BEING OFFSHORE AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC/JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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