416
FXUS61 KOKX 070607
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
207 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT TODAY. THE
HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN AN OFFSHORE WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON THURSDAY AND PASS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS NEAR THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY, SUPPORTING SYNOPTIC LIFT. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE LIFT BE PRESENT AS WELL, AND TAP INTO REMAINING MOISTURE
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING, FALLING MODERATELY AT
TIMES. THE MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, LEAVING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN
EAST OF THE CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES CLEARING AT LEAST
PARTIALLY BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR AREAS WEST OF LI AND CT. A
COOLER AIR MASS IS USHERED IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CLEARING SKIES SHIFT EAST FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. BLENDED IN MET/MAV MOS WITH NBM FOR SPOTS COULD SEE
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, WHICH COULD BE MITIGATED IN SOME SPOTS BY
THE WINDS NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLING FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE WAVE MAY DRIFT CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. DRY WEATHER OTHERWISE FOR
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NBM LOOKED GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SPOTS THAT SHOULD HAVE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS. A MORE RELIABLE MAV/MET MOS BLEND
WAS USED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE WERE TO LOWER POPS
MIDWEEK. THE NBM HAS CONSISTENTLY APPEARED TOO HIGH AND TOO FAR
INLAND WITH RAIN POTENTIAL FROM THE PASSING OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE ALONG THE COAST INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH DEPARTS, WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE OFFSHORE RIDGE.
THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY TO LONG ISLAND AND
SE CT INTO WED. AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
ERN CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK, THIS SHOULD SEND A DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THU INTO THU NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW
IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS MOSTLY FROM NEAR 60S IN NYC TO THE MID 40S AND 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THU BETWEEN PASSAGE OF
THE OFFSHORE WAVE AND APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
SUNDAY.
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY
TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PUSHED BACK
TIMING OF THIS AT ALL SITES. MVFR-VFR VSBY EXPECTED IN THE SHOWERS,
WITH MVFR-IFR CIGS. VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NYC TERMINALS AROUND 18Z
AND A FEW HOURS LATER FOR TERMINALS TO THE EAST.
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER 10 KT AND THEN MORE OF A NW
DIRECTION ON SUNDAY. BRIEF W FLOW IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY WITH LOWERING AND IMPROVING CIGS AND VSBY.
IFR CIGS TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING LIKELY STAY JUST EAST OF NYC,
BUT CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
VSBY FROM -SHRA MAY END UP BEING MORE VFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN -SHRA.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, THEN
OCEAN WATERS COULD SEE WINDS GETTING NEAR 25 KT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS IONIZER'S. SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
STILL AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE NO OTHER HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH
A S TO SE SWELL OF AROUND 3 FT AT 7 SECONDS ALONG WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS. THE SWELL HEIGHT DIMINISHES A LITTLE FOR MONDAY WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. A MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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